India's GDP Growth for FY22 Estimated at 9.2%, Against 7.3% Contraction in FY21: Govt

India’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the financial year 2021-22 has been estimated at 9.2 per cent, according to the data released by ministry of statistics and programme implementation. “The growth in real GDP during 2021-22 is estimated at 9.2 per cent as compared to the contraction of 7.3 per cent in 2020-21,” ministry of statistics and planning implementation (MOSPI) said in an official release.

The growth of Indian economy is lower than the forecast by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The central bank had last month mentioned that India’s GDP is likely to grow at 9.5 per cent for FY22. However, the estimated GDP growth rate of 9.2 per cent for FY22 is the highest in at least 17 years. It must be noted that the estimated growth has been supported by favourable base effect as India’s GDP witnessed a record 7.3 per cent contraction in FY21 due to Covid-19 pandemic.

Real gross value added (GVA) at basic prices was estimated at Rs 135.22 lakh crore in 2021-22, against Rs 124.53 lakh crore in 2020-21. It showed a growth of 8.6 per cent.

Nominal GDP in the year 2021-22 is estimated at Rs 232.15 lakhc crore, as against provisional estimate of GDP for the year 2020-21 of Rs 197.46 lakh crore.  Therefore, GDP is seen growing 17.6 percent in FY22 in nominal terms.

The advance estimates of Indian economy are based on benchmark indicators such as the index of industrial production (IIP) and the performance of listed private companies and crop production estimates. The central government uses these advance estimates data while preparing for the upcoming Union Budget 2022.

“Coming out from severe second wave, Indian economy has shown a remarkable progress. Several high frequency indicators have reached pre-COVID levels. Even the contact intensive and mobility dependent sectors like hospitality, aviation and tourism bounced back sharply from the second wave. Third wave and Omicron variant across the world has increased caution but policy and business response this time is expected to be nuanced, and we are not seeing knee-jerk reactions like those of the initial two pandemic waves,” said Vivek Rathi, Director ‑ Research, Knight Frank India.

“Mainly led by strong Investment activity and followed by consumption growth, FY22 GDP advance estimate has arrived at 9.2 per cent. This is a tad lower that earlier government estimate but still among the fastest globally. With improved pandemic awareness and technology led preparation, business and consumer confidence is high and government response on pandemic is graded and more localized now. Hence, we hope to have a softer landing from the third wave and continue economic momentum without severe disruptions,” he added.

The first advance estimate has suggested the GDP will grow 5.6 per cent in the second half of FY22.

Indian economy registered a growth of 8.4 per cent in the second quarter of the current fiscal (FY22), as per the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on November 30.

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