Mumbai: Analysts believe that the outlook for equity markets is still positive and they should open with a gap up on Monday.
Nifty will remain strong above 3324 levels and above 11620 the Sensex can move up by another 400 points.
Upendra Kulkarni, Fortress Financial
Nifty may correct by 150-200 points
Up till the month end, markets would be reasonably fine. But I think there is some correction definitely in the offering. The correction will not be anything major, maybe 150-200 points on the Nifty and then again we will see markets jumping up substantially. Markets will be range bound followed with some correction.
US housing slowdown will impact India
Oil and interest rate will be the main factors influencing the markets. There is a huge correction in the housing demand in the US and this will have an impact on the global economy including India.
Sumeet Rohra, Antique Stock Broking
Markets are likely to open with a good gap up on Monday
Markets are likely to open with a good gap up on Monday. Markets look pretty exciting for trade next week. It’s quite likely that going ahead we could be hitting 11930. That is the next resistance level for the Sensex. We’ve got an excellent support at 11297 levels.
A move above 11620 could take us up by another 400 points
A move above 11620 could take us up by another 400 points. Quite a bit of buying is emerging in the midcaps along with the large caps. Things seem like moving in the right direction.
Overall sentiment buoyant; global markets on a steady footing
Overall sentiment is quite buoyant and even the global markets are on a steady footing following Fed’s pause over interest rate hikes. The numbers from the US housing sector is suggesting a slowdown and that has further boosted the market perception of there being no fed hike in September when the Fed meets next to mull over interest rates. This will lead to FII inflows into emerging markets.
Vijay Bhambwani, Technical analyst
Above 3324, Nifty could touch 3500 levels
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I think the outlook is still positive. What we need to see whether the Nifty breaks 3324, as long we remain above that, the chances are that we will come to 3500.
Jyotivardhan Jaipura, DSP Merrill Lynch
Cautious on the market
I am cautious on the market like I have been for sometime. Valuations are not exactly cheap and there are global factors, which are probably not conducive to a very strong bull market rally at this stage. The Fed is a worry, interest rates in India per se are going up, also they have been edging up to that extent, things could slow next year in terms of corporate earnings and that is something, which will make the market look even more expensive. So I would be looking for a pullback from these levels, before it would be a right time to enter the markets again.
Markets could correct in September-October
Normally we don’t take calls on like a month but I think markets have had a sharp rally, so to that extent we must remember that the rally has been on low volumes. We could see markets correcting in the month of September-October, I guess over the next two months, we should get a correction coming. Maybe it will go a little higher before it falls down.
I guess the correction would be led by, one, technical pullback after the sharp rally that we have seen. We must remember over the last 5-6 weeks, we have had a 15% jump in the markets. Second, it is lot of these global fears worrying the markets. So that is something, which will keep haunting the market and I guess people will again be watching out for the result season. We must remember that monsoons have also been normal but the spread has not been exactly very good. So that’s one more factor, which will be plaguing the market.
Adrian Mowat, JP Morgan
Valuations look stretched
I am still of the view that the fair value for the market for the year end is 11,000, I think any move up from this level will be reasonably temporary. I actually think that 11,000 is a very bullish target. India still looks good, but valuations are pretty stretched, so I wouldn’t expect the market to go considerably from these levels.
I am cautious about this market making a new high because of current valuations. Also, I am a little nervous about markets in September, if we were to get some disappointments on the US inflation numbers. Further, September is a poor month for markets.
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