The assembly elections in Tamil Nadu are not only crucial because they will put an end to the debate on who sits on the throne for the next five years but also because they will determine the shape of Dravidian politics in the absence of the charismatic J Jayalalithaa of the ruling AIADMK and the colossal M Karunanidhi of the DMK, according to political experts.
Their appeal among the electorate is undeniable even after their demise, with both the Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) invoking their legacies while asking for votes in their names.
“Independent of the results, this election is expected to consolidate the post-Jaya, post-Karunanidhi Dravidian political hold over the state. Critics cannot anymore attribute the Dravidian success story to filmi charisma, though the freebies charge can become shriller,” political analyst N Sathiya Moorthy said, while also referring to the various doles announced by the parties to woo voters.
Both Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi were cine personalities-turned-political giants, and fierce opponents in their political careers.
Senior journalist Kavitha Muralidharan said it “has been repeatedly pointed out that this will be the first elections in several decades without (former chief ministers) Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa”. Muralidharan added: “The perceived vacuum is filled by new players…”
All said, the elections to the 234-member Tamil Nadu assembly, on the surface, are a barometer to gauge the popularity of chief minister Edappadi Palaniswami, or EPS, and DMK president MK Stalin.
The DMK has accused Palaniswami of surrendering at the feet of Jayalalithaa aide Vk Sasikala, who has now quit politics, to get the state’s top job. Stalin has also come down heavily on the AIADMK government for its alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which the opposition camp says is trying to force Hindi and north Indian culture on the southern state.
Notwithstanding the charges, Palaniswami has steadied the AIADMK ship after a tumultuous phase following Jayalalithaa’s death in December 2016, putting an end to a bitter infighting and creating a loyal support base.
Traditionally, Tamil Nadu has changed its government every five years, but chief minister Jayalalithaa broke that cycle in 2016 by coming to power for a second straight term. Hence, Stalin, who accuses the government of corruption and non-delivery of basic facilities, fancies his chances this time around. So much so that he even told News18 in an interview that he was expecting a “tsunami” of support in favour of the DMK.
Udhayanidhi Stalin, his son who is making his election debut this year, exuded the same confidence on voting day. “All of you please go and vote. We are very confident of victory,” he said.
Stalin, Karunandhi’s son and heir, has been able to stitch up an opposition coalition. Now, he is eying the throne as the DMK alliance’s chief ministerial candidate.
“The election in Tamil Nadu is important as it will help decide who among Edappadi Palaniswami and MK Stalin has the people’s confidence. It will also help indicate if any of the other entrants have any significant vote share to claim to be an alternative at some stage,” said Sumanth Raman, another political analyst.
Muralidharan agreed, pointing out that a lot is at stake for the ruling party. “This election will decide which way Tamil Nadu is headed in terms of the future of the AIADMK and Edappadi Palaniswami’s leadership.”
For EPS, a victory will mean the strengthening of his position and completing the post-Jayalalithaa consolidation process. On the other hands, knives could be out in his own party, and elsewhere, in case of a loss.
“A victory for AIADMK may not rattle the DMK leadership as much as the other way round…,” Moorthy said.
Then there is the BJP factor. The national party has put in serious efforts to find a foothold in the Dravidian state where it has been historically weak.
“This election is where the BJP is seriously trying to get its act together. I think it was altogether different before. But this time, the BJP is among the parties vying to fill the perceived vacuum,” Muralidharan said.
Tamil Nadu and the neighbouring Union Territory (UT) of Puducherry, which is also voting on Tuesday, are key to the BJP’s southern strategy.
“…a poll victory in Puducherry could be the springboard for the BJP to dive into the seat of power in neighbouring Tamil Nadu, where the two Dravidian majors, the DMK and the AIADMK, have been holding the fort…since 1967, when the Congress lost the elections,” senior journalist R Bhagwan Singh wrote for News18.
He added that the BJP’s plan could be to usher in huge development and infra projects into the tiny UT, create jobs, and lift the standard of living after ensuring the victory of the alliance featuring the BJP there. “This, the saffron camp hopes, will mean that voters across the borders in Tamil Nadu will burn with jealousy and end up craving for the lotus (the BJP’s poll symbol). In that case, the 2026 election could be a good harvest time,” he wrote.
Raman said the elections in Puducherry were significant as they could “herald the implosion of the Congress” in another state/UT, stressing that there were chances of the BJP’s emergence “in an area hitherto considered hostile for the saffron party”.
But Moorthy had a word of caution for the BJP “…politics in the UT is too complex to be able to follow from distant Delhi. One wrong step, and that’s it.”
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