India is playing geopolitics confidently and astutely as testified by the I2U2 virtual summit on July 14. India seems to have judged well the trends in West Asia involving Israel, the Gulf states and Iran and positioned itself well in the area.
For some years, India and Israel have been drawing closer, to the point that Israel has become a major defence partner of India. This has not stood in the way of forging close ties with the Gulf states. Indeed, the transformation of our ties with the UAE and Saudi Arabia has been a notable success of Indian foreign policy.
Concurrently, despite pressures flowing from US sanctions on Iran, India has kept its lines of communication open with that country. India obtained a carve out for the Chabahar project from the US. India and Iran have shared concerns about the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. High-level exchange of visits has continued, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the External Affairs Minister (more than once) and the Defence Minister visiting Iran. The Iranian Foreign Minister was in India very recently. India abstained on a recent vote in the IAEA on Iran moved by the western powers, maintaining its independent stance on the Iran nuclear issue.
Even though Israel and Iran are at loggerheads and the tensions between Iran and the Gulf states have been high over Yemen, Iran’s regional policies and its nuclear programme, India has navigated through these diplomatic shoals adroitly and built mutually advantageous ties with all the three mutually antagonistic powers.
Significantly, India has increased its defence engagement with the Gulf states, notably with UAE with which India has conducted naval and air exercises, and Oman as well. India has declared its readiness to be a net security provider in the Indian Ocean.
India’s rising defence profile in the Gulf would have no doubt been analysed by Iran for its implications, especially in the context of India’s closer defence cooperation with the US, without necessarily construing it as directed against Iran, which it is not. India would see its security outreach to the Gulf states as part of establishing ties of confidence with the region where India has vital energy, financial and manpower interests, quite apart from the Indo-Pacific dimension related to China’s rising profile in this area. India has to take a long-term view of the strategic aspects of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the establishment of a Chinese naval base either at Gwadar or Jivani, and the inevitable projection by China of its blue ocean naval power in the western Indian Ocean in the years ahead.
The strategic churn in the area is visible with Saudi Arabia and Iran reaching out to each other with a view to alleviating rising tensions. The Saudis are no doubt concerned at the prospect of a revival of the Iranian nuclear deal under US impulsion, with Iran and the US holding proximity talks at Doha recently, albeit without success. The Saudi’s clearly want to acquire a degree of strategic autonomy, which explains not only their contacts with Iran but also with Russia.
All this has given India space to pursue a more nimble diplomacy in the region. The I2U2 (India/Israel/US/UAE) — the western Quad — is a product of this. The pace with which it has advanced, compared to the eastern Quad, is notable. The I2U2 has moved from Foreign Minister level to summit level very rapidly. President Biden’s visit to Israel, followed by that to Saudi Arabia and UAE, provided the occasion to the US to politically solidify the Abrahamic Accords by holding the I2U2 virtual summit.
The strategic sensitivities around the constitution of I2U2 are not comparable to that of Quad, which is a reaction to China’s disruptive rise, its territorial aggrandisement, violation of international law and so on. China opposes the Quad (and so does Russia), as it seen as an initiative to contain its power. India has moved slowly initially on the Quad, wanting to assess its scope, agenda, the contribution of various countries and their commitment to it.
With the other three countries being military allies, India had sensitivities about being seen as part of a broader military alliance. The Quad, therefore, evolved gradually from official to political level (foreign ministers) and then to summit level. India is today far more committed to the Quad, calling it a force for public good.
The I2U2 grouping is not directed against any country, despite the hostility of the US and Israel to Iran and UAE’s insecurities vis-à-vis that country. Unlike China, which is India’s adversary, Iran is not, and so the Indian calculus is very different. China and Russia have not taken any position against this new grouping. Just as in the case of Quad, where India prioritises the group’s economic and technological agenda, in the case of I2U2, the agreed agenda is primarily economic.
In his opening statement, PM Modi spoke of the meeting between true strategic partners with common perspectives and interests, highlighting joint projects in many areas and a road map for making progress, namely, increased joint investment in six key areas of water, energy, transport, space, health and food security. For this, the four countries will mobilise their mutual strengths — capital, expertise and markets. He expects this to make significant contributions to energy security, food security and economic growth on a global scale.
The joint statement issued on the occasion speaks of mobilising private sector capital and expertise to modernise infrastructure, advance low carbon development pathways for industries, improve public health and access to vaccines, advance physical connectivity between countries in the region, jointly create new solutions for waste treatment, explore joint financing opportunities, connect startups to I2U2 investments, and promote the development of critical emerging and green technologies, all while ensuring near- and long-term food and energy security. All very pertinent objectives.
The focus of the inaugural I2U2 leaders meeting was on the food security crisis and clean energy. To this end, UAE – home to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and host of COP28 in 2023 – will invest $2 billion USD to develop a series of integrated food parks across India that will incorporate state-of-the-art climate-smart technologies to reduce food waste and spoilage, conserve fresh water, and employ renewable energy sources. India will provide appropriate land for the project and will facilitate farmers’ integration into the food parks. US and Israeli private sectors will be invited to lend their expertise and offer innovative solutions that contribute to the overall sustainability of the project. These investments will help maximise crop yields and, in turn, help tackle food insecurity in South Asia and the Middle East.
On clean energy, the I2U2 Group will advance a hybrid renewable energy project in Gujarat consisting of 300 megawatts (MW) of wind and solar capacity complemented by a battery energy storage system. For this $330 million project, the US Trade and Development Agency funded a feasibility study. UAE-based companies are exploring opportunities to serve as critical knowledge and investment partners. Israel and the US intend to work with the UAE and India to highlight private sector opportunities, including Indian companies. The joint statement notes that such projects have the potential to make India a global hub for alternate supply chains in the renewable energy sector.
The summit reaffirmed support for the Abraham Accords and other peace and normalisation arrangements with Israel. This, it was noted, should help in the advancement of economic cooperation in the Middle East and South Asia.
It is clear from the joint statement that the immediate concrete economic beneficiary of this new grouping’s first meeting is India.
Kanwal Sibal is former Indian Foreign Secretary. He was India’s Ambassador to Turkey, Egypt, France and Russia. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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