As the Indian markets ended this week on a subdued tone, the benchmark equities in the next week will likely be influenced by multiple factors. The market participants will be looking for the major macroeconomic data starting with Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January to be out on Monday, February 13. Also, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data for January will be released on Tuesday, February 14. On the same day, the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) will come out with the total passenger vehicle sales data. Market participants will also be looking for the Balance of Payment data on February 15. The foreign exchange reserves data is going to be released on February 17.
Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart Ltd said, “…the movement of crude oil, the dollar index, and US bond yields will be other important factors. The institutional flow will be important as FIIs’ selling has come down after relentless selling in January.”
FIIs
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth a net ₹144.73 crore last week. This week, the market will be awaiting key inflation data from the US and India for clues on the rate hike trajectory of central banks.
Key Results
In the last leg of result season, there are many companies likely to report their quarterly numbers during the week including Ahluwalia, Anjani Foods, Campus Active, FSN E-Co Nykaa, Hinduja Global, Kama Holdings, Ratnamani Metal, ICRA, SAIL, Adani Enterprises, Apollo Hospital, Biocon, Eicher Motors, Grasim, NMDC, ONGC, Siemens, Nestle, Bosch, PI Industries, Uflex, and Zee Media.
Microeconomic Data
Retail inflation data for both the US and India is scheduled to be announced on Tuesday. Last week, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked the key benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 percent, citing sticky core inflation.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services said, “The RBI’s monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting delivered a smaller rate hike in line with market expectations, which was positively welcomed by investors. They have taken a more optimistic view on domestic growth by increasing the GDP forecast while cautiously keeping CPI inflation at 5.3 percent for FY24.”
US market data: On the global front, investors would be eyeing a few economic data from the world’s largest economy, the United States (US), starting with Inflation Rate, Redbook on February 14, followed by API Crude Oil Stock Change, Retail Sales, Industrial Production on February 15, Initial Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-week Average, EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change on February 16 and Export & Import prices, Baker Hughes total rig count on February 17.
Nifty Technical Outlook
Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, said the consolidation movement continued in the market for the second consecutive session on Friday and Nifty closed the day lower 36 points. “After opening on a negative note, the Nifty slipped into further weakness in the early part of the trade. It later moved into a narrow range within 17800-17870 levels, which continued till the end,” he said.
“A small range candle was formed on the daily chart with minor upper and lower shadows. Technically, this pattern indicates the formation of a doji-type candle pattern. But, having formed this pattern amidst a range movement, the predictive value of this doji could be less. After a sharp upside bounce on 8th Feb, the market has been consolidating in the last couple of sessions and this could be part of range movement. The Nifty could eventually break out of the pattern on the upside in the near term. Immediate support is at 17,760 and the next overhead resistance is to be watched around 18,000 levels.”
Rupee
Anindya Banerjee, VP – of currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives at Kotak Securities, said. “USDINR spot closed 1 paise lower at 82.50 on another day of lackluster trading. Due to a lack of fresh triggers, markets remain ranged. Over the next week, we could see USDINR trade within a range of 82.30 and 82.80 on spot.”
On Friday, the Nifty50 and BSE Sensex indices settled at 17,856.50 and 60,682.70 levels. Among the sectoral indices, the decline continued in energy and metal pack while profit taking in select FMCG and auto majors was also weighing on sentiment.
At the same time, buying in IT and financials combined with a recovery in realty and pharma counters restricted the fall and kept the traders busy. Meanwhile, the broader indices outperformed the benchmark and gained in the range of 1-2 per cent on Friday.
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