Writing for Firstpost in early April 2024, this columnist had quipped, “..if the electioneering is muted and shorn of fireworks, the voter too is keeping mum. Is there a message in that silence too?” The voters broke their silence on June 4, 2024. But have they all spoken in one voice? Certainly not. There is also no single message either in favour of the INDI alliance and the Congress or against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), as I shall argue in this piece.
The BJP is often a victim of its own hype as we have seen in the case of some state elections in the past, most notably in West Bengal circa 2021 when an increase in the number of seats in the Assembly from a mere three to 77 was called a resounding defeat. Having started with a clarion call of “400 paar”, the June 4 results will no doubt appear as West Bengal redux. While the Congress with less than 100 seats is celebrating victory, the BJP with 240 seats is made to look like a loser. So, it is all about perspectives and context.
After the INDIA bloc meeting last evening, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge made a cryptic statement: “We will take appropriate steps at the appropriate time to realise the people’s desire not to be ruled by the BJP’s government.” So, the Congress appears to be in no mood to rest. It is a party that is not used to remaining out of power and it is no secret that the Gandhi family sees itself destined to rule the country. Ten years is the longest time anyone has managed to keep it away from the Centre. Having come close to snatching back power, they would do everything within their capacity and support from any willing sponsor to unseat Narendra Modi, as they have done with other non-Congress prime ministers in the past.
Though for now the BJP’s pre-poll allies have pledged support and decided to stay put with the NDA, in the great Indian political bazaar, one cannot rule out some of them switching sides, if they fail to strike a bargain in the new formation, or if the other side lures them with an offer they cannot refuse. Besides, there is a large bunch of fair-weather birds who flocked to the BJP before the elections and may now put themselves out in the market as a cohort. Should the Congress resort to “Operation Lotus” tactics against the BJP, aiming to destabilise the government as they’ve done before, that could queer the pitch too.
Therefore, it may be premature to assume the current NDA tally of 292 is a done deal. At the same time, it would be wrong to believe that the new BJP under Narendra Modi is not capable of playing its own games and getting more people on its side to bolster its position and, thereafter, go for mid-term polls at a time of its own choice to return with a larger majority. Anything is possible in politics where a week is a long time. Thus, it may be prudent to keep the arithmetic on hold and, instead, delve a little into the verdict to decode the messages and implications.
In the absence of any overarching issue, the BJP fought the election in Narendra Modi’s name. Modi himself ran an unapologetic presidential-style campaign, using the catchphrase “Modi Ki Guarantee” and often saying in his speeches that pressing the BJP’s lotus symbol button on the Electronic Voting Machine (EVM) would transfer the vote directly into his account, making the local candidate appear inconsequential.
This had worked in 2019 when it was said in jest that if a lamppost were made to stand on a BJP ticket, it would have won purely on the Modi wave. But in circa 2024, the law of diminishing returns began to cast its shadow over ‘Brand Modi’. It was no longer enough to carry the day by itself, overcoming local anti-incumbency or the negative baggage of individual candidates.
Therefore, in fairness, Narendra Modi will have to take accountability for the numbers. But, can it be said that the final outcome is a verdict on Modi himself? To that, I will say a categorical “NO”, just as I would also assert that it is not a positive mandate for either Rahul Gandhi or the Opposition.
First, the issues that affected the BJP were not uniform across places. The reasons for its performance in different states varied widely, including the ones where it has done well like Jharkhand and Odisha. Equally, it cannot be said that the INDI alliance secured its votes by fighting from a common platform – à la the Janata Dal movement in 1977.
While “saving the Constitution” was a common refrain among INDI alliance partners, not all of them were on the same page with Rahul Gandhi on caste census, quotas, reservations and “khat-a-khat” doles and instant employment – except in Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Bihar. Among these, UP deserves special attention, as this is the state where the BJP has actually been reduced to “half”. As the state that returns the largest number of parliamentarians, it is most representative of the ‘North’.
The BJP’s debacle in UP is baffling given the Yogi-Modi ‘double engine’ regime’s track record: development, governance, ‘labharthi’ (welfare) schemes, expressways, and, above all, Kashi and Ram Mandir. Here, the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress combine appear to have ticked all the boxes to get minorities, OBCs (other backward classes) and, surprisingly, the youth rallying behind the gathbandhan. Their task may have been made easier by caste fault lines, factionalism within the BJP, and mistakes in ticket distribution —factors many link to a power struggle between the BJP’s state and central leadership.
Whatever be the underlying reasons, it is a “deja-vu” of the “India Shining” anti-climax of 2004. However, the same cannot be said about the other states.
If the INDI alliance’s performance in Maharashtra has been impressive, it was thanks to the BJP’s confused strategy in the state ever since it broke ties with Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena. Here, the Congress, which alone won 13 seats, was the principal beneficiary. Rajasthan was another case of over-confidence, inner-party dynamics in the distribution of tickets and caste equations.
In Bengal, the BJP had done little to rebuild the state unit after the 2021 post-poll washout. Suvendu Adhikari is no Himanta Biswa Sarma. The BJP assumed that the TMC would be caught in its own web of scams and scandals, failing to account for the party’s robust grassroots organisation. The ‘on and off’ attitude of central agencies did not provide much confidence about the Centre’s seriousness in pursuing corruption charges and rumours of “setting” were all-pervasive.
All these can be case studies in itself. On a rough, back-of-the-envelope calculation, the BJP frittered away more than 50 seats across Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Maharashtra alone due to its own strategic follies and organisational lapses.
Down South, the BJP was never a serious contender in Tamil Nadu for seats. BJP’s long-term ambition of building a vote bank of its own is understandable but it is an enigma as to why it chose to sacrifice numbers in the short term by jettisoning its alliance with the AIADMK. A cursory analysis shows that the combined vote share of AIADMK and the BJP is higher than the DMK in more than a dozen constituencies. A maiden seat in Kerala is of little consequence.
But the BJP’s real southern tragedy is Karnataka, where it is still to recover from its series of miscalculations and missteps since Modi and Shah decided to clip the wings of B S Yeddyurappa without understanding the caste calculus on which the party had built its base in the state. Tying up with the JDS was a stitch in time but it has made the BJP dependent on a fickle ally, diluting its own brand equity in the state.
These were errors in judgement that should not be conflated with other issues, such as the economy, income, inflation, jobs, caste reservations and religious polarisation and promise of freebies, that swayed the electorate.
The Opposition, especially the Congress, will surely like to rejoice viewing the results as Modi’s Waterloo. But it would be a mistake for the BJP, RSS and their supporters to pin the entire blame on Modi, and by extension, his deputy Amit Shah. That is precisely what the BJP’s opponents want – a trap that Modi’s detractors within the larger ‘Sangh Parivar’ should not walk into. Any attempt to weaken Narendra Modi at this juncture would cause a huge backslide that could take the party back by several years.
Mistakes were made. And, there is a need for course correction. As a person who works continuously on self-development, Modi himself would surely get into introspection. But these elections were certainly not a referendum on Modi. That would be a wrong narrative not just for BJP, but also for the nation at large.
The author is a current affairs commentator, marketer, blogger and leadership coach, who tweets at @SandipGhose. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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