AAP is Going All Out to Win Battle for Punjab, But Will Party Have Prashant Kishor's Magic Touch Again?

When Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) chief Arvind Kejriwal tied up with political strategist Prashant Kishor just two months ahead of the crucial Delhi elections, it raised quite a few eyebrows. For AAP, Delhi was a done deal. However, Kejriwal and Kishor took to each other quite well, and soon, the Indian Political Action Committee (I-PAC) was completely inside AAP’s campaign. After voting was over, Kishor dropped in at Kejriwal’s residence, and was extremely confident of a sixty-plus figure for the party. On the day of counting, Kishor was at AAP’s headquarters. In the afterglow of that remarkable victory, winning 62 of 70 seats, the picture of Kejriwal with Kishor’s arm around his shoulders reflected a kind of comfort between the two as well as a promise of future alliances, particularly Punjab.

Kejriwal capitalised on the victory moment by announcing the party’s national ambitions to the world. Huge placards in yellow and black were put up in the AAP office, asking people to join the ‘revolution’ by giving a missed call on 9871010101 even as the numbers were trickling in. Arvind Kejriwal was already looking beyond Delhi, even before the dust had settled on a deeply polarising, exhausting and bitter campaign. And the AAP chief was eyeing Punjab very closely. In fact, AAP had hoped that while Kishor would definitely play a role in Delhi elections, the latter would play a much more decisive role in the party’s strategy in battleground Punjab.

In its debut assembly elections in Punjab in 2017, AAP bagged 20 seats, way below the expectations of the party, but emerged as the principal opposition party. However, the Punjab unit of the party was riddled with factionalism right from the beginning, and with Sukhpal Khaira threatening to split the party, things came to a head. Since then, Kejriwal had dissolved all state and district heads, preferring to go with two-time MP Bhagwant Mann as the state president and Harpal Singh Cheema as the leader of the opposition. Mann brushes aside reports of any damage to the party due to factionalism. “Those who were greedy, had vested interests, are now out of the party,” he says. “Look at Sukhpal Khaira, he says that he has no greed for any posts and would not hesitate to sacrifice a thousand posts, but has not quit his position as MLA. This despite floating his party and losing his deposit.” He goes on to add that in the coming two weeks, the organisation will be strengthened with appointment of heads of all state and district units, those who have worked hard and stood by the party will be rewarded. Incidentally, the party’s doors remain open to all dissenters except for MLA Sukhpal Khaira.

Kejriwal appointed the party’s Tilak Nagar MLA Jarnail Singh in charge of Punjab with ‘organisation building’, ‘expansion of party’ and showcasing the ‘Delhi model’ as its primary aim.

Jarnail Singh took charge from Manish Sisodia, who had, in turn, replaced Sanjay Singh and Durgesh Pathak as the party’s Punjab in-charge after the less than expected results in the 2017 assembly polls and the factionalism that followed. Unlike Durgesh Pathak, Sanjay Singh, and Manish Sisodia, the three-time MLA has the huge advantage of being a Punjabi himself. Jarnail Singh has been travelling to Punjab frequently, almost every week.

Singh says, “During the lockdown, we reviewed the situation very closely. For fighting elections, a strong organisation is necessary. My priority will be to build a strong organisation that is active, carry everyone along. This may sound simple, but achieving it is difficult.” .

AAP’s state president and two-time MP from Sangrur, Bhagwat Mann, says, “Jarnail Singh ji is a Punjabi, he is acquainted with Punjabi culture, structure, taste. He is a bridge between Punjab and Delhi. He conveys Delhi’s decisions to us, helps us in policymaking, and is not at the forefront.”

In terms of strategy, AAP has decided to fight the Punjab battle armed with a ‘chehra’, or face. The thinking in the top echelons in the party is that projecting a face is important in winning elections. Bhagwant Mann says, “Faisla ho chuka hai, is baar bina chehra nahi jayenge. Chehra Punjab se hoga, party baith kar faisla legi (It has been decided that this time we will fight elections by projecting a face. That face will be from Punjab, the party will decide it).” A sentiment that finds an echo in the state in-charge, Jarnail Singh. “Our effort is to go into these elections with a CM face. We have learnt from our mistakes. In 2017, we contested elections for the first time and pushed a 100-year-old party to the third position. In 2022, we will form the government.”

AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal has already indicated that Congress MLA Navjot Singh Sidhu is welcome to join the party. In fact, the ‘Sidhu factor’ keeps cropping up every now and then. Commenting on this, Mann, himself a contender with powerful crowd-pulling abilities, says, “He is welcome. I have been a fan of his cricket and whenever he used to get out, I used to turn the TV off. He is also related to me. Everyone who is passionate about the interests of Punjab is welcome.” However, he goes on to add that speculations about Navjot Singh Sidhu were never-ending – speculations of Sidhu joining AAP, joining the BJP and even becoming deputy chief minister, etc.

Sources say Sidhu is keeping his cards close to his chest and point out that he is close to both Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi.

For AAP’s embattled Punjab unit, the party’s third consecutive and emphatic victory in Delhi in 2020 has come as a strong ray of hope. “The manner in which Kejriwal’s ‘politics of work’ triumphed over BJP’s divisive politics, huge money power and might of the mightiest in the BJP gives us courage,” says a worker, refusing to be quoted. He adds that going into battle mode in 2022, the party’s Delhi model – free electricity, free water, free bus rides, performance in government schools, compensation for farmers, interventions in the health sector with disruptive ideas like mohalla clinics, a scam-free government and Kejriwal’s connect with the Punjabi voter is the biggest advantage. In fact, talk to any member of the state unit, and the refrain is the contrast between the Kejriwal model and the performance of whether Akalis or Congress would be the party’s calling card.

Following AAP chief Kejriwal’s request for donations of oximeters on his birthday and call to party workers to get the devices to each village, the party’s Punjab unit has also launched a campaign and managed to ruffle Captain Amarinder Singh’s feathers. He has lashed out against the Delhi chief minister, asking him to “mind his own business” and not “spread misinformation” in the state, even dubbing him a “deshdrohi (anti-national)”. In a sign of changed strategy, the AAP chief has stayed away from any direct confrontation with the Punjab CM, leaving the state in-charge, Jarnail Singh, and party’s state president Bhagwant Mann to duel with Captain Amarinder Singh. It was Jarnail Singh who retorted with this tweet:

Bhagwant Mann says, “When someone raises relevant issues, you call him a deshdrohi? On which visa is a Pakistani journalist staying at your place? It is she who is running Punjab. I will raise this issue in the Lok Sabha.”

AAP chief Kejriwal tweeted in Gurmukhi on August 21, Guru Ramdas’s anniversary, signalling his intent.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the rural Jat Sikh vote, due to fierce anti-incumbency of two terms of Akali rule, was looking for a home and embraced AAP which won 4 seats in its maiden elections. It was this result that fired up the party’s hopes in the state. And while winning 20 seats in a debut election three years later is not a small feat, the party’s performance lost its sheen due to the high expectations of winning a majority. The ground is fertile- Mann points out that in the run-up to polls, chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh had promised a job to every household, punishment for the desecration of the sacred Guru Granth Sahib, smartphones to the youth and more, and nothing has been accomplished.

“There is the Rs 2,400 crore excise scam, with CM holding the portfolio, 150 people have lost their lives by consuming illicit liquor, there has been no punishment, the agriculture bill has provoked farmers to protest and we are opposing it. Saadhe teen saal mein Maharaja Amarinder Singh apne mahal mein quarantine hai, shayad unko pehle se pata tha corona hone wala hai (For three and a half years, Maharaja Amarinder Singh has remained quarantined in his palace, perhaps he had a premonition about the coronavirus crisis),” says Mann. On the challenge posed by the Akalis, he says, “They came with a 99-year-old contract which has expired. People don’t have faith in the Badals. Even the BJP does not have faith after the losses of Arun Jaitley and Hardeep Puri.”

AAP claims that it has played the role of a responsible opposition though the damage caused by waves of rifts cannot be denied. And while the Akali-BJP combine was decimated in the 2017 assembly elections, to the surprise of the Aam Aadmi Party, the coalition did claim 25.2% of votes, more than AAP’s 23.7%. In terms of seats, it won 15, while AAP won 20 and its ally Lok Insaaf Party (LIP) won 2. Prashant Kishor and his team played a key role in the Congress’s 2017 campaign, leading the party to a handsome majority of 77 seats.

Recently, Captain Amarinder Singh said that Kishor would be happy to work with the Congress again in 2022 and that party interim president Sonia Gandhi has left the decision to him. Meanwhile, Kishor’s team has clearly indicated to this reporter that Punjab is not on its plate now. The poll strategist is busy with West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. Interestingly, there has been no meeting between Kejriwal and Kishor after the remarkable Delhi victory, except on result day, even though AAP has held its doors open for Kishor. That could be typical Kishor style. There have been no meetings between him and YS Jaganmohan Reddy or Amarinder Singh following their victories either. Additionally, sources within Kishor’s camp have indicated that there have never been any talks or discussions on Punjab, a fact confirmed by sources within AAP. For Prashant Kishor, the determination to see a ‘strong opposition’ to the ruling dispensation spurs his decisions. Arvind Kejriwal, who had audaciously taken on Narendra Modi in 2014, and played the role of a principled opponent to the Modi-led BJP since, has re-calibrated his political position, softened his stand. The question is, would Kishor still be interested? After Delhi, the AAP chief has a keen eye on Punjab. Expect the party to pull out all stops for this battle.