With the counting of votes in Lok Sabha elections 2024 progressing, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress seems to have maintained its firm grip on its turf West Bengal, as it moves to sweep the state with leads in over 30 seats, trends till noon suggest.
The Trinamool Congress is on course to wrest at least eight seats from the BJP in north Bengal and in the western part of the state. The ‘labharthis’ (beneficiaries of government schemes) have emerged as the most crucial factor in West Bengal. But, the ‘labharthis’ here are of Mamata Banerjee’s, and not Narendra Modi’s.
The election results bear no reflection of alleged corruption charges against the senior politicians of Trinamool Congress in West Bengal. As BJP’s number plummets almost by half, all the exit poll predictions announcing a saffron sweep in the state fall flat.
The BJP is trailing in crucial seats like Balurghat and Coochbehar, where BJP’s state unit chief Sukanta Majumdar and Union Minister Nishith Pramanik contested, respectively. The party is also trailing in its stronghold Asansol, where it had won twice.
Populace and Political Economy
So why did the BJP fail in Bengal even after gaining a short term high in the state? There can be more than one analysis of this. However, political experts attribute it to the populace and the political economy in the state.
In a state like West Bengal, that has over 30% Muslim population, Trinamool Congress always has an edge. The Muslims, this time, consolidated in favour of Mamata Banerjee as they saw her as their ‘political shelter’. The ‘confused’ Muslim voters of CPM and Congress, who voted against Trinamool Congress in 2019, have come out solidly in support of Mamata Banerjee.
Bengal’s political economy across its rural belt significantly influences the electoral outcomes, often obscuring issues like alleged corruption, administrative and political malpractices, and sexual assault allegations. Several factors contribute to this dynamic.
“In a state that is almost devoid of new job opportunities and where people migrate from, over-dependence of government doles has a huge bearing on the election results,” said Prof Samir Das, senior political analyst who teaches political science in Calcutta University.
Mamata Banerjee’s government runs over a dozen cash schemes in the state, including around 10 women-centric cash schemes like Lakshmi Bhandar, Kanyashree and Rupashree. Under all these schemes, women get financial assistance from the government.
Senior political analyst Biswanath Chakraborti said Mamata Banerjee continues to maintain an iron grip over women voters through the monthly financial assistance scheme – Lakshmir Bhandar. The scheme was announced and implemented before the state’s assembly election in 2021.
The monthly assistance scheme for women provides direct cash transfers to women, particularly those from economically disadvantaged backgrounds. The scheme was introduced with a direct cash transfer of Rs 500 in 2021. The amount was doubled to Rs 1,000 before Lok Sabha elections. In a state like Bengal that sees the men from rural areas migrating to other states in search of work, a monthly assistance scheme to women voters has a massive political implication, they added.
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