From “Congress will not get 40 seats” to “Will provide outside support to INDIA bloc and help them form the government” — Mamata Banerjee’s statements and her stand on the opposition alliance continue to pass through twists and turns as the Lok Sabha elections progress.
Banerjee, who in February expressed doubt about the Congress securing even 40 seats, and later said that her party was on its own in West Bengal, has now said that she is the one who stitched up the alliance and named it INDIA.
Addressing an election rally in the state on Wednesday, Banerjee said that her party would provide “outside support” to the alliance to form the government. Her statement created ripples in the political circles as many questioned her stand on the alliance. A day later, the chief minister of West Bengal clarified, saying that she was very much a part of the INDIA bloc as she constituted the alliance and named it. She added that the Congress unit of West Bengal and the Left parties were not in it.
In the past four months, Banerjee has altered her statements and stand on the alliance several times. She accused some senior politicians of the bloc of “humiliating” her in meetings. She did not take part in Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyaya Yatra that passed through Bengal, and in the last few months, she was not seen attending the crucial meetings and rallies of the INDIA front. Her party was represented by senior MPs, while her nephew and national general secretary Abhishek Banerjee too remained absent from such meetings.
An analysis of her speeches during the election campaign in Bengal brings out how her political targets in the state have always been two parties: the BJP and Congress. Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress refused to share seats in Bengal with “allies” the Congress and Left. Unlike what happened in Kerala, the Congress and Left joined hands and are fighting the election in Bengal together.
According to political analysts, and senior politicians of both the TMC and Congress, the bone of contention has always been the share of Muslim votes.
‘Confusing voters’
Reacting to the chief minister’s comments over giving outside support to Congress and her clarification that she was a part of the opposition national alliance, Congress’s West Bengal unit chief and MP Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury said that the TMC chairperson had sensed his party’s upswing in the elections.
“Mamata Banerjee is confusing voters. She has been saying that her party is a part of the INDIA bloc, but the Pradesh Congress of Bengal and the CPM’s state unit are outside the alliance. This is an impossible lie she is uttering every day. Is the Bengal unit not part of the national Congress? We are our party’s representative. She is trying to confuse voters. She is now scared and she can see that her party’s political graph is plummeting,” Chowdhury told News 18. “She has always used Muslims as her vote bank. Muslim votes have been the foundation of her victory. In this election, she can sense that Muslims have also deserted her for false promises, lies, corruption, and violence. She can see that the Muslim votes are swinging towards the Congress-Left alliance. She is nervous and that is why she is making such politically impossible statements.”
‘We tried, but…’
Apart from Mamata, Abhishek Banerjee said that the Trinamool was “serious” about the alliance in Bengal as well. He said that he went and met Rahul Gandhi at 6 am at his residence in Delhi. However, the electoral arrangement did not work out for Bengal, said a source in Trinamool Congress close to the Banerjees.
A senior TMC leader said, “Bengal is Trinamool’s turf. Congress should have supported us here. The party offered some seats, but they wanted more. That is why the talks failed. Before the elections, Congress lost its ground connection and that was probably the reason why Didi mentioned such things about them not getting 40 seats. But, in politics, things change fast. We can see the anti-BJP feeling, the angst against the party at the Centre. Didi can feel the people’s pulse. But it goes beyond doubt that without Trinamool’s support, Congress cannot form the government.”
Muslims as ‘movers’
Out of a total of 42 Lok Sabha constituencies in Bengal, around 14 to 15 have more than 30 per cent Muslim population. These are called the Muslim-dominated seats, of which in around eight to nine, the community has over 25 per cent population. This means they could be the deciding factor in these areas. According to political analysts, Muslims are the “prime movers” for the opposition alliance in Bengal.
Since the absolute consolidation of the Hindu vote has not yet happened in the state, the TMC’s political calculation always moves around the chunk of Muslim votes through block voting, and a considerable percentage of Hindu votes that includes all castes. Traditionally, the ruling parties of Bengal – both the Left and Trinamool – have continued to secure a well-consolidated Muslim vote. Any split in this may put the ruling TMC in trouble.
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