Ghaziabad Lok Sabha constituency is a general category seat, which comprises Ghaziabad district and part of Hapur district, in Uttar Pradesh. Presently, the Ghaziabad Lok Sabha constituency comprises five Vidhan Sabha (legislative assembly) segments – Loni, Muradnagar, Sahibabad & Ghaziabad falling under Ghaziabad district, and Dholana under Hapur district. The BJP represents all these segments in the state assembly, effectively making Ghaziabad a stronghold of the saffron party in western UP. Voting for General Elections 2024 in Ghaziabad will take place in the second phase on April 26. The counting of votes will take place on June 4.
2019 Result and 2024 Candidates
BJP MP General (Retd) VK Singh had won the 2019 Lok Sabha Election from the Ghaziabad seat, defeating Suresh Bansal of the Samajwadi Party by over 4 lakh votes.
The BJP has fielded Atul Garg from the Ghaziabad Lok Sabha seat for Lok Sabha polls 2024 while the Congress and BSP have fielded Dolly Sharma and Nandkishor Pundhir respectively.
Who Stands Where
Known as a gateway to Uttar Pradesh and considered one of the state’s prominent constituencies, Ghaziabad is all set to witness a triangular fight between the BJP, Congress and BSP.
BJP Remains Frontrunner
The BJP is largely expected to win Ghaziabad once again. Gen VK Singh, who won the constituency in 2019 with a margin of 5.66 lakh votes, has dropped out of the race this time amid murmurs that his candidature was opposed by all BJP MLAs from Ghaziabad. Atul Garg, a native of Ghaziabad, has been fielded by the BJP, and he has the support of all the saffron party’s legislators from the district.
Though the seat had been an easy win for the BJP since it was carved out, the caste equation remains against Garg. For four terms, the BJP chose to field a Rajput candidate as the community has the largest number of voters in Ghaziabad. However, after 20 years, ignoring the caste demography, the BJP has decided to field a candidate from the Baniya community. This has led to a wave of discontent within the Rajputs, and Rajnath Singh was quickly deployed by the BJP to quell the anger against Atul Garg’s candidature.
Adding to Garg’s problems, urban voters are complaining of Atul Garg’s conduct as an MLA. There are complaints that Garg ignores the issues raised by the people, especially those relating to civic infra. He has also interacted with urban dwellers only once in a blue moon.
Despite these complications, the sense one gets from the ground is that the Modi factor this election season may just be too big for local issues.
Congress Hopes Big
Congress has provided an opportunity to Dolly Sharma, a familiar figure in the local community. Sharma holds an MBA degree and is AICC spokesperson. Prior to entering politics in 2017, she was running her own business.
Ground inputs suggest Dolly Sharma’s campaign is not matching up to the intensity with which the BJP is fighting for the seat.
Dolly Sharma was fielded by the Congress in 2019 as well but lost to Gen VK Singh and only got the third-highest votes, far behind the SP-BSP candidate who came second.
By fielding a Brahmin candidate, the Congress-SP alliance hopes to tap into the more urban demographic of Ghaziabad. Dolly Sharma can claim credit for not being sprung as a candidate out of the blue. Unlike Atul Garg, she has also been active on the ground and has been raising issues of public concern for years now.
Despite Dolly Sharma’s efforts, the Congress will find it difficult to swing the seat away from the BJP. The high victory margin for the BJP in 2019 gives it much more legroom than one would assume. The saffron party’s vote share in 2019 was a staggering 62%. While the BJP can afford to lose some voters, the Congress must cover a large distance if it hopes to wrest the seat.
BSP Could Spell Trouble
At a time when the INDI alliance is putting a lot of effort in ensuring it gives a collective fight to the BJP, Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party could play spoilsport. BSP initially announced Anshay Kalra as its candidate from Ghaziabad, but soon after, the party reversed its decision and named Nandkishor Pundhir instead.
According to a senior party official, both Kalra and Pundhir were contenders for the candidacy, but Kalra failed to complete the necessary documentation, leading the party leadership to choose Pundhir for the ticket.
For the Congress, the BSP candidate is bad news who could split the Dalit and Muslim vote, thereby lowering INDI alliance’s already bleak chances of victory. However, Pundhir is a Rajput, and could potentially also cut Rajput votes for the BJP.
Key Constituency Issues
Civic Infra Issues
There are complaints about Ghaziabad’s civic infrastructure, the state of roads, connectivity issues, sewage-related woes and the perennial traffic crisis in the city.
Communal Divide
Inputs from the ground suggest that the BJP remains in pole position because Hindus in Ghaziabad want Modi in power at the Centre. Revival of Sanatan culture and practices even in government events, the BJP’s Hindutva push and Modi’s fulfilment of core issues like Ram Mandir, Article 370, CAA, etc are all bound to consolidate votes in the Prime Minister’s favour.
House Tax
Earlier in January, reports emerged that the Ghaziabad Municipal Corporation (GMC) had proposed to increase the house tax to be at par with the DM circle rate. This could have proven to be a tricky issue for the BJP right ahead of elections, which is why Mayor Sunita Dayal was quick to lay to rest all speculation by saying that house tax rates will remain unchanged.
Illegal Construction
A survey last year by the Uttar Pradesh government identified about 5,500 unauthorised constructions in Ghaziabad’s Vasundhara alone. Illegal constructions are a big issue in Ghaziabad. Ghaziabad is one of the 131 Non-Attainment Cities identified under the National Clean Air Program (NCAP) whose AQI remains among the highest in the country as also in the world. Illegal constructions only add to the pollution woes of the city.
Law and Order
The BJP government in Uttar Pradesh is credited with improving the law-and-order situation in Ghaziabad. Once famed as the urban crime hub of India, Ghaziabad’s law and order situation has improved considerably. This has, in fact, led to the Yogi government becoming very popular here.
Problems Exist, But Vote is For Modi
An interesting perspective one picked from ground inputs was the while the people are complaining of problems like price rise and inflation, unemployment and other issues, their vote seems to be solidly behind the BJP. For many, it appears, Narendra Modi remains a man who can deliver over the long term. That is what many in Ghaziabad are betting on.
Voter Demography
Ghaziabad has a total of 27,26,132 voters, as per the 2019 data. Of these, 498,882 (18.3%) are rural voters while 2,227,250 (81.7%) are urban voters.
The constituency has 400,741 (14.7%) SC voters. While Muslims account for 26.88% of the total voters, 76% are Hindus.
The Ghaziabad constituency has about 5.5 lakh Muslim, 4.7 lakh Rajput, 4.5 lakh Brahmin, 2.5 lakh Baniya, 4.5 lakh SCs, 1.25 lakh Jat, one lakh Punjabi, 75,000 Tyagi, 70,000 Gujar, and five lakh other urban community voters.
Infrastructure Development
- A big demand of the residents of Ghaziabad’s Vijay Nagar, for years, was the Dhobi Ghat road-over-bridge (ROB). What was supposed to be completed in 2017 was thrown open to the public only last year.
- Work on the 10.3km Hindon elevated road, connecting Ghaziabad’s Raj Nagar Extension with UP Gate near east Delhi, started during Akhilesh Yadav’s tenure, but it was inaugurated by Yogi Adityanath in 2018. Last year, the BJP government in Uttar Pradesh renamed the elevated road as “Ram Setu”.
- Another important project which is under-construction is the Faridabad–Noida–Ghaziabad Expressway or FNG Expressway. The 56 km long, 6-lane wide expressway will connect Faridabad in Haryana with Noida and Ghaziabad in Uttar Pradesh.
- The Rapid Rail Transit System is a major hit in Ghaziabad. The 34 km stretch in Ghaziabad is part of the 82 km RRTS project which aims to connect Delhi, Ghaziabad, and Meerut, at a cost of ₹30,274 crore.
- The Uttar Pradesh government had in October last year directed the Ghaziabad Development Authority (GDA) to introduce projects on nearly 10 hectares of land around the corridor. These areas have been designated as the influence zones of RRTS and special development areas (SDAs).
- In 2019, PM Modi had inaugurated the civilian terminal at Hindon Airport, proposed as a solution after IGI was unable to provide slots for flights under the government’s Regional Connectivity Scheme (UDAN). Recently, direct flights for Ayodhya, Ajmer and Jalandhar have also been started from Hindon Airport.
- UP government is also keen to set up a rapid rail network from Ghaziabad to Noida International Airport. According to the new plan by the authorities, the new Rapid Rail will be connected via Greater Noida West and Pari Chowk and constructed in two phases.
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