Chennai: Political battle lines are being drawn (and re-drawn) in Tamil Nadu as the state goes to the Lok Sabha polls on April 24. Hectic back and forth parleys between the many parties in the southern state were witnessed last week as a clearer picture emerged for the 5 crore electorate. This time, the state will see a multi-corner contest with the main battle between two Dravidian giants - the AIADMK and the DMK.
With her eyes set on Parliament, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa was the first to sound the poll bugle in the state by starting her campaign on March 3 from the temple town of Kancheepuram. While she was able to steal a march on her rival, the DMK by announcing candidates to all 39 seats in Tamil Nadu and the lone seat in Puducherry, but in doing so, the AIADMK chief ended up hurting the sentiments of her coalition partners - the Left front. With Amma refusing to allot more than a single seat each to CPI and CPI (M), the alliance folded on March 6, just over a month after it was formally announced. The Left parties now plan to go it alone in the state.
But Jayalalithaa walking out of the third Front has in no way diminished her chances of playing kingmaker in the coming Lok Sabha elections. Sources in the AIADMK have ruled out a pre-poll arrangement with the BJP and the party is likely to go it alone in the coming elections. With no signs of anti-incumbency against her government, and with the shadow of corruption and the 2G case still on the DMK, Jayalalithaa hopes to maximise the party's electoral strength and go from the 9 seats it won in the 2009 parliamentary elections to a clean sweep this time around.
"AIADMK is expected to get 30 plus seats. That is what the polls are predicting and that is what the party is hoping. She is in an enviable position, in the state and in the national picture," observes veteran editor and the chairman of 'The Hindu' N Ram.
Quick to seize an opportunity to out-trump the Left, West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee, in an interview to a television channel, said she was open to working with Jayalalithaa and willing to accept her as a Prime Ministerial candidate. A day later, the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister telephoned her West Bengal counterpart to wish her well ahead of the elections, raising the prospects of Mamata Banerjee's Federal Front in a post-poll scenario.
Ram points out, "Once you have 30 plus to play with, you will have very few with that number. I don't think Mamata Banerjee and the TMC is going to get that number. Nobody expects the Samajwadi Party to get that number although Mulayam Singh is one of the obvious contenders for Prime Minister. The news media is rightly focussing on Tamil Nadu as a critical state and Jayalalithaa as a key player on the national scene is almost guaranteed."
So, what about Jayalalitha's bete noire, M Karunanidhi and the DMK? The party has ruled out a pre-poll alliance with the Congress and has chosen to ally with smaller parties like the VCK, Puthiya Tamilagam, the IUML and MMK. This despite reports of Congress President Sonia Gandhi believed to share a good rapport with Karunanidhi, and Finance Minister P Chidambaram attempting to revive the alliance. His younger son and DMK Treasurer MK Stalin, who has been virtually running the party, refuses to ally with their erstwhile partner given Congress' stand on the Lankan Tamils issue and the release of the seven convicts in the Rajiv Gandhi assassination case.
DMK's candidates list released on Monday did not throw up any surprises. While rebel son Alagiri, suspended earlier this year was not given a ticket, the Dravidian party has fielded former Telecom Minister A Raja, key accused in the 2G case and former Textiles Minister Dayanidhi Maran, who faces corruption charges in the Aircel-Maxis case once again. While Karunanidhi and his loyalist Raja brush aside the charges stating there is "no concrete evidence" against the latter, what is clear is that corruption will continue to be a hot issue this campaigning season.
The two Dravidian parties will have to keep a close watch on another political force coming up in the state. Riding on what many perceive to be a 'Modi wave', the BJP has managed to cobble up a rainbow alliance with the DMDK, PMK and MDMK on board. While seat-sharing talks are still yet to be finalised, it appears actor-turned-politician Vijaykanth's DMDK will be leading the front with 14 seats. The BJP will be counting on DMDK and Ramadoss' PMK to bring in votes from the Vanniyar community in western and northern districts. Political experts, however, add that while DMDK's vote share was 8 per cent in the 2011 Assembly elections, it has lost much ground since, with seven of its MLAs defecting to the AIADMK camp.
Pegging DMDK's strength at 4 per cent, political commentator Gnani Sankaran argues, "The BJP desperately wants a small player like DMDK with them because in Tamil Nadu to beat AIADMK you need numbers and even with a depleted strength of about 4 per cent even that 4 per cent is big for the BJP in Tamil Nadu because they have a minimal presence. So they want to add up the numbers even now knowing that the DMDK does not have 8 per cent."
Finding themselves, politically isolated in the state, the Congress is forced to go solo. While it remains to be seen whether bigwigs like P Chidambaram will contest from the state, the Finance Minister is unlikely to forget the controversy that erupted in 2009 when he won the Sivaganga constituency by a slim margin. Political commentator Gnani Sankaran says, "Congress is in a real lose-lose situation. There is no win-win. They can think of going it alone in all 40 constituencies, fielding all their star candidates and over a long period, they can hope to build up a party and cadre."
A multi-cornered fight in Tamil Nadu is bound to hurt the fortunes of some candidates with the splitting of votes in many constituencies. While Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi may choose to keep their cards close to their chest until after the counting of votes, what is understood is that battle lines drawn before polling can be just as well easily redrawn in a post-poll scenario.
Comments
0 comment