Urban Centres Give BJP Head Start in Gujarat, Congress' Challenge Lies in Reclaiming Tribal Seats

New Delhi: A clear head-start in urban Gujarat has provided enough cushion to the BJP to offset any attrition in the social base in rural areas in the last couple of elections.

A closer look at the poll outcome of 2012 shows the then Chief Minister Narendra Modi successfully neutralising challenges from his former mentor Keshubhai Patel by pulverising the opposition in urban and semi-urban centres of the state.

With a strike rate of 92%, the party won 42 out of 46 seats in urban Gujarat. This included 15 of 16 seats in Surat, 15 of 17 in Ahmedabad city, three of Rajkot’s four seats, both city seats of Gandhinagar, all of Baroda’s five and both urban seats of Bhavnagar.

In an assembly with 180-odd seats, this nearly translates to a quarter of the house strength. Basically implying that BJP during the last elections needed to win in other 45-odd seats to touch the half-way mark.

The Congress has a lot of catching up to do in the urban constituencies if it wants to take a serious aim at government formation as, in effect, BJP’s tally in Gujarat begins from 45.

NORTH GUJARAT

Congress has done relatively better in North Gujarat during the last couple of elections. This was one of the few regions which bucked the 2012 Modi wave with Congress winning 14 out of 27 seats.

Two state ministers Jaynarayan Vyas and Praful Patel had even lost their seats. This time though, the Congress misses out on its strongest card in the deck — Shankarsinh Vaghela. The former CM has quit the grand old party and may dent its prospects with his influence.

CENTRAL GUJARAT

The corporative belt of Central Gujarat had once been the stronghold of the Congress party but central districts around Vadodara have seats with a substantial tribal population. The Congress needs to tap into that very group to turn the region into one of its bastions.

SAURASHTRA

A BJP fortress which in 2012 was challenged by former CM Keshubhai Patel. The Patel leader formed his own regional outfit but only managed to bag just two seats as the BJP negated any and all threats in the region. In fact, the incumbent government won 35 out of 45 seats, as compared to 42 out of 58 in 2007.