The comparisons are hard to ignore. In the West Bengal elections 2021, Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee decided to contest from Nandigram, the hub of her anti-land acquisition agitation in 2011. In both 2011 and 2016 Assembly elections, she had contested from Bhabanipur.
But aiming to re-establish her credentials as a fighter, she switched from Bhabanipur to Nandigram, setting up an electoral contest against confidant-turned-rival Suvendu Adhikari. It was an ill-conceived move that ended in with Mamata Banerjee’s defeat by 2,000 votes.
Bengal history seems to be repeating in Telangana, with the BJP fielding former state finance minister Eatala Rajender against Chief Minister Kalavakuntala Chandrashekhar Rao, or KCR as he is popularly known, from Gajwel. Eatala was the de facto number 2 in the BRS before he was removed from the state cabinet in June 2021, leading him to join the BJP. In the 2021 bye-election in Huzurabad, Eatala won by a margin of close to 25,000 votes.
The contest between KCR and Eatala would be an interesting one. KCR belongs to the powerful Velama community that constitutes a mere 4% of the population in Gajwel, and, therefore, seems to have his task cut out. KCR’s popularity transcends communities, but the fact that he has chosen to contest from Kamareddy additionally along with Gajwel has set the cat amongst the pigeons, with many speculating on his vulnerabilities in Gajwel. Apart from his community, KCR will be banking on the Muslim community that constitutes another 7% of the population.
The BJP is hoping to tap into Eatala Rajendar’s community of Mudiraj, an OBC community that has close to 35,000 voters, around 14% of the electorate. While the Yadav and the Gouds constitute another 10% each, the Madiga community of the Scheduled caste constitutes 11%. The Mala community constitutes 8% of the voters in Gajwel
The SC communities of Malas and Madigas usually vote on opposing lines, but the Madiga community in Telangana have been amenable to the BJP owing to the efforts that have been taken by the Union Government in trying to forge a consensus towards sub-categorisation of Scheduled Castes. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Warangal in July this year, Madiga Reservation Porata Samithi (MRPS) leader Manda Krishna Madiga met the PM and requested an early resolution of the issue.
In 2018, KCR romped home with more than 60% of the votes, leading to a margin of more than 60,000 votes. However, the 2018 election will be difficult to replicate as KCR was successfully able to paint a narrative of anti-Telangana forces coming together to unseat him when the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) jumped into the fray. This time, with more visible anti-incumbency and a string of patchy results in the run-up to the elections in Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) and various by-elections in the state, it is not clear if the aura of invincibility around KCR is intact.
The BJP hopes to form a rainbow coalition of Backward Castes, setting the stage for an interesting 6 weeks in the run-up to Telangana election on November 30, 2023.
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