After disastrous floods in Gujarat, the southwest monsoon has turned vigorous over the south causing floods in parts of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. As the intensity of the current rain spell decreases after Thursday, the MeT has alerted regarding another weather system brewing over the Bay of Bengal.
The low-pressure system – major rain-bearing system of the monsoon – is likely to form over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal around September 5. The entire region from coastal Andhra Pradesh to Telangana, Karnataka and Kerala is forecasted to receive isolated spells of heavy rains till September 10.
The monsoon has continued to bring rains over India without a break since its arrival over Kerala on May 30. While June ended with a deficit of nearly -11 per cent, July (+9 per cent) and August (+15.7 per cent) saw above-normal rains – higher than the MeT’s forecast. IMD chief Dr M Mohapatra attributed this to multiple low pressure systems which kept the monsoon active.
As monsoon approaches its fag-end, the department has predicted successive systems forming almost every week in September too, bringing above-normal rains. The southern peninsular region has by far received surplus rains from June to August – closing September 4 with nearly 26 per cent excess rains.
So far, all sub-divisions in southern India have recorded excess rains filling up the reservoirs – Tamil Nadu (58%), Andhra Pradesh (42%), Telangana (38%), and Rayalaseema (44%) among the top. As of August 30, the storage in as many as 43 reservoirs in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana (2 combined projects in both states), Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu as monitored by the Central Water Commission (CWC) remain higher than last year.
The monsoon trough remains active. A large part of India is under an active monsoon spell this week with widespread rains from Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh to Madhya Maharashtra, as well as Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Bihar. A cyclonic circulation also persists over Assam as well as Haryana bringing rains.
As of September 5, the monsoon is nearly 8 per cent above-normal over India, with normal rains over 17 sub-divisions, and excess in 13 others. The deficit only persists in four meteorological subdivisions – Arunachal Pradesh (-20%), Punjab (-22%) and Himachal Pradesh (-20%) and Bihar (-27%).
The four-month season ends in September, as the southwest monsoon normally begins to withdraw from the western end – Bikaner, Rajasthan by September 17, and completely exits by October 15. However, this time, its retreat is likely to be delayed considering the heavy rains forecast over the region over the next two weeks. The IMD has forecasted above-normal monsoon over India this September with more than 109 per cent of the long-period average (LPA).
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