India May Substantially Complete First Dose Job by October, Dozen States Could Do So by End of Sept

The government is expecting to substantially complete the first dose job in the country by the end of October and about a dozen states to do so by the end of September, officials told News18.

This is significant given some estimates that the third wave could hit the country in October after the festive season. It is only both the vaccine doses that offer the best protection from Covid-19.

A total of 49 crore first doses have been given in the country so far out of 94 crore eligible adults, and a year-end target of double dose to all.

Madhya Pradesh and Kerala have announced they will complete the first dose job by September. Himachal Pradesh has said it has already completed the task. Other states which may achieve near saturation in first jabs by end of September are Uttarakhand, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Delhi, Karnataka, Union Territories of Jammu & Kashmir and Chandigarh, Tripura, Mizoram and Sikkim.

Over 60 per cent eligible population in the above-mentioned states or UTs have got the first jabs already.

Low-coverage states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and Tamil Nadu may take longer to complete the first jabs job and may stretch till October or beyond.

The country is expected to receive around 50 crore vaccine doses over the next two months and nearly 70 percent of doses given daily in the country presently are first doses. Given the near three-month between two doses of Covishield, the bulk of the consumption among the 18-44 population is for the first dose.

The months of November and December could hence see a big push for giving the second dose and the Centre is already pressing states for the same to start enhancing coverage of the second dose.

Is 100% double-vaccination realistic?

While the government has said it expects to fully vaccinate all 94 crore adults by the end of the year and questions are being asked if the same is possible, a senior official said the government will ensure that 188 crore jabs, enough to vaccinate 94 crore adults, “are made available in the country by the end of December”.

The official however said that 100 percent vaccination by December depends on a host of factors, pointing out that Covid-19 vaccination is voluntary and not compulsory.

“It could be a case where about 80% of the entire population turns up to get the jabs by December and the rest do not due to vaccine hesitancy in the rural areas. There is already a part of the 45+ age population which has not turned up even for their first jabs despite being eligible for it since April and adequate vaccines being available,” the functionary reasoned.

Another senior official said the picture will be clearer by the end of October when the first jab demand is expected to flatten out given near saturation.

“Already some states with high first jabs numbers are finding it difficult to find the left-over people and are taking help of voter lists and running special campaigns in villages to encourage people to take the jabs,” the second official said.

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