Karnataka: The aborted trust vote

Bangalore: The crucial trust vote in the Karnataka Assembly has been delayed by procedural debates.

The debates began as soon as the Assembly met and discussed various issues like whether the Governor could send observers in the Assembly.

Meanwhile, the Congress is still trying to clinch a fresh deal with JD(S). Union Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee is in touch with JD(S) H D Deve Gowda and is reportedly working out a compromise formula for his son HD Kumaraswamy.

He may take a decision after lunch break.

It's judgement day for Karnataka CM Dharam Singh as the trust vote comes up in the Karnataka Assembly and Congress is going all out to save the coalition.

They are wooing the dissenting JD(S) MLAs with deputy chief ministership and big ministries.

But JD(S) rebel leader Kumaraswamy has said that there is no question of going back to Congress and added that whatever he was doing was for his party.

The party has also offered to form a coordination committee and make Deve Gowda its president.

Gowda has said he will think about it and reply to the party.

Meanwhile, in the Assembly, Congress and the Gowda faction have demanded that the Governor be recalled.

The BJP is already in a celebratory mood and have their targets clear.

Karnataka BJP President Jagdish Shettar said the BJP and JD(S) have the numbers to bring down the Dharam Singh government.

"We at the BJP have made up our mind and we will vote against the government," Jagdish Shettar, Karnataka BJP President said.

Meanwhile, Congress Spokesperson Anand Sharma said that aligning forces with the BJP would be a betrayal of popular mandate.

"The mandate in Karnataka was for the formation of a secular Govt and was against the BJP. So any other department that brings BJP into governance will be a betrayal of that mandate," Sharma said.

BJP Spokesperson Prakash Javadekar also reaffirmed the party's stand. "The priority of BJP is to bring the Congress government out. Earlier the JD (S) was not ready for the alliance and now they are, so good for the party," he said.

JD(S) MLA Jayakumar too said it was too late to go back to the Congress. "There is no question of taking back our stand," he said.

The curtains will finally draw on the convoluted Karnataka political drama and it could be a win-win situation in Karnataka for Kumaraswamy, Deve Gowda and the BJP.

That is, if the power play scripted by the three takes the direction they have planned.

The humble farmer from Karnataka may just end up having his cake and eating it too as the vote of confidence comes up in the Karnataka Assembly on Friday.

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Though Gowda has not revealed his final card, his son though appears to be certain. He says he will stick to what he said at the start of it all and vote the congress out of power in the Karnataka assembly.

"As I have said, there's no change. We will stay with the BJP," Kumaraswmy said.

So is Gowda a betrayed father or a political juggernaut playing a larger game?

He started off saying his son had betrayed him, but a few days later came out in support of Kumaraswamy and said his son saved the party from a split.

"Not once but a hundred times I will tell Sonia Gandhi when I meet her," he had said.

Now, in another u-turn, he says he cannot accept an alliance with the BJP because of his secular ideology.

But, unlike him, his son's political arithmetic has more to do with caste. An alliance with the BJP would bring together two of Karnataka's biggest caste blocks - the Lingite vote (which came to the BJP in the last elections) and the the JD(S) hold over the Volkaliga community (which some feel can tide over the loss of the JD-S traditional minority vote bank)

For the BJP, the logic is simple. It's an inroad into south India where the party has marginal presence.

"It is a very good development for us on the eve of elections in two southern states in Tamil Nadu and Kerala," Venkiah Naidu, BJP leader, said.

By de-linking himself from his son's decision to join hands with the BJP, Deve Gowda has ensured that his secular image remains intact at the same time his son becomes the Chief Minister.

Meanwhile, celebrations in the Karnataka BJP camp have already begun. Though vote of confidence is still hours away, but the holidaying BJP MLAs in Bangalore were in high spirits.

The 70 BJP MLAs, back from a whirlwind holiday, held a closed-door meeting. And the party members seemed satisfied with the way things were shaping up in Karnataka.

"The decision we have is to behave in a disciplined manner, without ugly criticism. We should allow the Chief Minister to talk in a democratic manner," Ramachandra Gowda, BJP MLC and deputy leader, Legislative Council, said

Victory is not yet BJP's, but the saffron brigade is brimming with confidence of numbers which they believe are stacked in their favour.

And despite speculation in the wake of the meeting between Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy, the BJP maintains it will form the government with the JD(S).

"The discussion today was historical and BJP going to make an excellent alliance with the JD(S). It's a god-willing alliance," Ramachandra said.

Though the final outcome is still uncertain, the BJP is in a celebratory mood as this is the closest they have come to power in the south.

(with inputs from Deepa Balakrishnan, Veeraraghav, Bhupendra Chaubey, Anubha Bhonsle and Pallavi Ghosh)