The southwest monsoon, which brings more than 75 per cent of the country’s rainfall during June-September, will be normal this year, the Met department says in its forecast.
It predicts a 98% of long-period average monsoon for 2021, with very few chances of La Nina during monsoon. The department will issue the second stage forecast in May. Earlier this week, GP Sharma, President (Meteorology) of the Skymet Weather had said the Long Period Average (LPA) of the rainfall during June to September will be 103 per cent. ”That is the healthy normal,” Sharma said.
He added that there is 60 per cent probability of a ’normal’ monsoon and 15 per cent probability of ’above normal’ rainfall. Monsoon in the range of 96-104 of the LPA is considered to be normal and 103 per cent of the LPA is on the higher side of the normal range. Sharma said 2021 will be the third consecutive year of a good monsoon. Last two years have recorded above normal rainfall.
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