Modi's Amethi rally not about 2014 polls, it's his first for the next one

In the good old days, top politicos would never campaign against each other at their bastions or constituencies. But then this is not a 'good old' election... this is a loud, angry and (possibly) a historical one.

Today afternoon Narendra Modi, the official prime ministerial candidate of the BJP, will address a rally at the constituency of Rahul Gandhi, the unofficial prime ministerial candidate of the Congress. This rally is ground-breaking in a strange way: No one actually needs to speak here, the decision to hold the rally in Amethi is a statement in itself.

Why so? Because this is the only rally that is not about the 2014 general elections, but about the next one. Messrs Modi and Amit Shah do not expect their candidate and obedient party worker (not a word of complaint against the party for throwing her into a futuristic experiment) Smriti Irani to win against the Gandhis. They dare not hope that the people of Amethi will throw out of the window their shared history with Sanjay Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi, and now the brother-sister duo of Rahul and Priyanka. They would also be painfully aware that the Amethi onslaught will result in ‘revenge’ rallies served very cold by the Congress in Varanasi or Vadodara or even Lucknow.

The objectives for Modi and Shah in Amethi are two-fold. First, make this safe seat a real contest for the Gandhis -- if not today then surely tomorrow. The plot is to ensure that in 2019 the Gandhis do not feel invincible even in a single constituency in this country. The second objective is tied to the first: Cripple the devotees (read Congress rank-and-file) by pulling down their Gods. In the Janata regime, when Indira Gandhi was arrested it was called political vendetta (she used it brilliantly to storm back to power). But when done during electioneering, political vendetta becomes an exercise in parliamentary democracy – and the BJP has detected that loophole. Third, by not sparing even Amethi, the BJP is staking claim on entire Uttar Pradesh in an old Congress sort of way for the next decade or so. SP and BSP will know who’s the boss – a long-term strategy aimed at consolidating upper caste votes in the state for a long time.

Now, there are risks associated with this Test match-disguised-as- 20/20. If Modi pushes the dagger too deep into the Congress’s heart, Amethi will find that revolting. If he just delivers his stump speech, it might drown in the emotional appeal of the Rahul-Priyanka roadshow. The shiniest part of this double-edged sword lies in the middle – a speech centered around Amethi and Uttar Pradesh’s development. This is one rally in which Modi should appear most prime ministerial… after all he’s intentionally taking on a family that gave India three prime ministers. That too on sacred ground.