Monsoon salute for schoolchildren on June 1

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: South-west monsoon is all set to play spoilsport on the first school day of students in the state. The showers will hit Kerala, the gateway of monsoon, on June 1, according to the India Meteorological Department. IMD is monitoring the progress of monsoon over the Andaman sea which is expected on Sunday. The prediction is given with a model error of four days.Last year, the monsoon started on May 29, two days ahead of the predicted date.For the past five years, the onset of monsoon in the state was before June.“The inter-tropical convergence zone is showing signs of organisation and the cross equatorial monsoon flow is expected to appear over the Andaman sea within the next few days resulting in increased rainfall activity over the area,” the IMD release said.Some of the criteria for declaring the onset of monsoon are minimum temperature over north-west India, pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south peninsula, outgoing long wave radiation over South China Sea, lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian Ocean etc.IMD, in its long-range forecast, had predicted normal monsoon in the country. IMD will update the forecast again on mid-June.Uncertainty in Forecast Information The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum, which met in mid-April, stated that there was an uncertainty over the forecast.“It is recognised that there is uncertainty partly because of transition of La Nina conditions to neutral El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions and some possibility for the emergence of El Nino during the later part of the monsoon season,” the Forum stated.   El Nino and La Nina are the warming and cooling conditions respectively in the Pacific Ocean.The development of El Nino condition, which might dampen the monsoon, is expected by September.   Meanwhile, IMD believes that El Nino might not have any effect over monsoon this time.Met Director K Santhosh said that the emergence of El Nino conditions were expected by September, the last month of monsoon season.“ENSO condition, which is the transition of La Nina to El Nino would exist during the monsoon season. However, it would not have much effect on the monsoon as it may emerge only by September. The monsoon is expected to be normal this time,” he said.