Havana: No matter whether Fidel Castro returns to office or not, diplomats and dissidents say the post-Fidel era has already begun and some foresee an ideological tug of war between 'tropical Taliban' and proponents of Chinese-style economic reforms.
Castro, 80, handed over power to his brother Raul, 75, on July 31 after undergoing emergency surgery for intestinal bleeding blamed on overwork. While officials said the elder Castro was recovering well, he was too ill to make an appearance at a summit of 116 Third World countries in Havana last week.
The Castro brothers hold world records for years in power: Fidel is the world's longest-serving head of government, Raul the longest-serving defense minister -- both 47 years.
"It is difficult to envisage Fidel running the country as he used to, and with the same vigour," said a Latin American diplomat. "He is on the way to becoming a symbol and a figurehead."
More than 70 per cent of Cuba's 11 million population were born after Fidel Castro seized power in 1959 and tend to be reluctant to talk about a future without him. But a number of dissidents speak out frankly and on the record.
"Cuba has not been the same since July 31," said Miriam Leiva, a co-founder of the Ladies in White, a group of women whose husbands were arrested, tried and convicted in a large-scale crackdown on dissidents three years ago.
Her husband, economist Oscar Espinosa Chepe, was released for health reasons 19 months later. Most of the others are still in prison and the Ladies in White stage a silent protest march every Sunday. Espinosa Chepe and Leiva aired their views in an interview
in their tiny apartment in Havana.
Both see economic reforms managed by the Cuban Armed Forces headed by Raul Castro as the best hope for the near future, a sentiment echoed privately by many Cubans who tend to complain more vociferously about economic misery than the political system.
"What would be disastrous would be for the tropical Taliban to run the country," Espinosa Chepe said. The phrase refers to a younger generation of officials mentored personally by Fidel Castro.
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