Madhya Pradesh is witnessing a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) wave and is all set to vote in the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government for the third consecutive term according to a pre-poll survey conducted by Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) for CNN-IBN and The Week.
The survey, which interviewed 2,870 persons between October 13 and 20 in 140 locations in 35 constituencies, reveals that the BJP has gained in strength in the past five years with the electorate giving a thumbs up to Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan. While the BJP is likely to secure 148-160 seats, Congress will win 52-62, and the Bahujan Samaj Party, 3-7. And 10-18 seats will go to other smaller parties and independents in the 230-member Assembly.
In the last five years Madhya Pradesh has turned into a BJP bastion with the party widening its lead over the Congress. In the 2008 Assembly elections, the BJP secured 37.6 per cent of the votes but now it is the preferred party of 44 per cent of the electorate, which is a significant jump of 6 percentage points. While the Congress is also likely to increase its vote share from 32.4 per cent in 2008 to 33 now, the huge gap of 11 percentage points means that the BJP is miles ahead of its rival.
Even though the BJP voters are a little less sure than Congress voters about their preference, pro-incumbency is nearly as high as it was in 2008, giving Chouhan a huge advantage. Almost 53 per cent of the voters are in favour of the Chouhan government (56 in 2008) while only 20 per cent say that it should not get another chance (24 per cent in 2008).
The pro-incumbency wave is explained by the fact that satisfaction with the BJP government remains very high. It is 72 per cent in October 2013, only slightly down 76 per cent during the 2008 elections Chouhan's performance as the Chief Minister is also rated very highly. He gets the support of 78 per cent of those surveyed, which is just three percentage points lower than in 2008.
Good governance and development, better roads, and improved power supply are the top three reasons for the vote in favour of Chouhan. He has a 24 percentage point lead over his much younger rival Jyotiraditya Scindia of the Congress. Even among first-time voters Chouhan is the preferred choice.
But Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi has replaced Chouhan as the top choice for the prime minister's post, whereas in July it was the Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister who had been more popular.
How the regions will vote:
Except Mahakoshal (49 seats) where the Congress has recovered and is ahead of the BJP, the latter is ahead of its rivals in all other regions of the state. In Chambal (34 seats) there is a close race between the BJP and the Congress with the BSP too in the fray is some seats. In Vindhya Pradesh (56 seats) the BJP has maintained a fair lead over the Congress while in Malwa North (63 seats) the former is way ahead of its rivals. Malwa Tribal (28 seats) will see a close fight and even though the BJP is ahead, the Congress is not far behind.
As for caste equations, the BJP is the preferred choice of Brahmins, Rajputs, other upper castes and Yadavs. Among the other backward castes both the BJP and Congress are gaining at the expense of other parties, but the former is slightly ahead. Among the Scheduled Castes, the stock of the Congress has declined and the BJP has taken the lead. The Congress has slipped but still leads BJP among Scheduled Tribes. For Muslim voters the Congress is still the top choice, but the BJP has managed to make inroads.
BJP is also perceived more positively than Congress; despite not being in power in the state, the Congress is viewed as a more corrupt party than the BJP.
Seat projection by Dr Rajeeva Karandikar, Director, Chennai Mathematical Institute
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