London: Air travel across much of Europe was paralysed for a fourth day on Sunday by a huge cloud of volcanic ash, but Dutch and German test flights carried out without apparent damage seemed to offer some hope of respite.
British Airways and Irish Aer Lingus highlighted uncertainty over any resumption of flights in the immediate future by cancelling all of its flights for Monday.
Dutch airline KLM said inspection of an airliner after a test flight showed no damage to engines or evidence of dangerous ash concentrations. Germany's Lufthansa also reported problem-free test flights, while Italian and French carriers announced they would fly empty airliners on Sunday.
The Association of Dutch Pilots (VNV) said that along with sister organisations it believed a partial resumption of flights, with some restrictions, was possible.
"The concentration of ash particles in the atmosphere is in all likelihood so little it poses no threat to air transport," said VNV chairman Evert van Zwol.
Through Sunday, a clampdown held across much of Europe, posing a growing problem for businesses including airlines, estimated to be losing $200 million a day, and thousands of travellers stranded worldwide.
Many countries, including Austria, Britain, France and Sweden, closed their airspace into Monday, and weather experts said wind patterns meant the cloud was not likely to move far until later in the week.
They said the dark grey plume rising from an Icelandic volcano and drifting southwards through the upper atmosphere could become more concentrated on Tuesday and Wednesday.
For some businesses dependent on the speed of air freight, the impact has been immediate.
Kenya's flower exporters said they were already losing up to $2 million a day because they had not been able to airlift their blooms. Kenya accounts for about a third of flower imports into the European Union.
KLM, acting on a European Union request, flew a Boeing 737-800 without passengers at the regular altitude of 10 km (6 miles) and up to the 13 km maximum on Saturday. Germany's Lufthansa said it flew 10 empty planes to Frankfurt from Munich at altitudes of up to 8 km.
"We hung up filters in the engines to filter the air. We checked whether there was ash in them and all looked good," said a KLM spokeswoman. "We've also checked whether there was deposit on the plane, such as the wings. Yesterday's plane was all well."
Volcanic ash has an abrasive effect and can strip off vital aerodynamic surfaces and paralyse an aircraft engine. Aircraft avionics and electronics, as well as windshields, can also be damaged.
German airline Air Berlin was quoted as expressing irritation at the way the shutdown was decided.
"We are amazed that the results of the test flights done by Lufthansa and Air Berlin have not had any bearing on the decision-making of the air safety authorities," Chief Executive Joachim Hunold told the mass circulation Bild am Sonntag paper.
"The closure of the air space happened purely because of the data of a computer simulation at the Vulcanic Ash Advisory Centre in London."
The disruption is the worst since the Sept. 11 attacks on New York and Washington in 2001, when U.S. airspace was closed for three days and European airlines were forced to halt all transatlantic services.
Leaders stuck
US President Barack Obama, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and others cancelled trips to Poland for the funeral of Polish President Lech Kaczynski. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev went ahead with his flight to Krakow.
US-based forecaster AccuWeather said the ash was in an area of weak wind flow and was unlikely to move far on Monday.
"The plume is expected to become more concentrated Tuesday and Wednesday, posing a greater threat to air travel. However, it is also expected to become narrower, impacting a smaller area," said AccuWeather.
Economists say they stand by their models or predictions for European growth, hoping normal service can resume this week.
But if European airspace were closed for months, one economist estimated lost travel and tourism revenue alone could knock 1-2 percentage points off regional growth as long as it lasts. European growth had been predicted at 1-1.5 percent for 2010.
"That would mean a lot of European countries wouldn't get any growth this year," said Vanessa Rossi, senior economic fellow at Chatham House. "It would literally stifle the recovery. But the problem is it is incredibly hard to predict what will happen. Even the geologists can't tell us."
Chris Weafer, Chief Strategist at Russian bank Uralsib, currently stranded in Abu Dhabi en route to London from Singapore, said the only market fundamental investors were following was "the wind direction across Europe".
"The volcano has the potential to undermine Europe's fragile recovery and that would have global consequences. So much global trade and commerce is airborne these days that any extended disruption will have immediate impact on investment and growth."
Disruption spread to Asia, where dozens of Europe-bound flights were cancelled and hotels from Beijing to Singapore strained to accommodate stranded passengers.
More than four in five flights by U.S. airlines to and from Europe were cancelled on Saturday. Shipping company FedEx Corp said more than 100 FedEx Express flights headed to Europe were rerouted, diverted or cancelled within the past 72 hours.
The volcano began erupting on Wednesday for the second time in a month from below the Eyjafjallajokull glacier, hurling a plume of ash 6 to 11 km (3.7 to 6.9 miles) into the atmosphere.
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