Maha ‘Tukde Tukde’ Aghadi: Why Ajit Pawar’s Second Rebellion Will Help Modi in 2024

With the Shiv Sena split and the Maharashtra government comfortably placed, the question many are asking is — what was the need for this Sunday surprise by Ajit Pawar, where he rebelled for the second time against his uncle and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) patriarch Sharad Pawar?

While a simple answer will be that Ajit Pawar’s unfulfilled political aspirations were dying a slow death in the NCP, the more complex answer is to aid the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

THE 2024 LS ARITHMETIC

Maharashtra has 48 Members of Parliament (MP), of which the BJP has 22, the highest, followed by 18 MPs of the Shiv Sena and 4 of the NCP. Two seats remain vacant, according to Lok Sabha website. With the BJP keen on surpassing its 2019 performance and hitting the 350-mark on its own, it not only needs to do as well as in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, but also increase its tally.

With Shiv Sena, with its 18 MPs already split, the chances of the NCP gaining in next year’s general election was a realistic possibility. But Ajit Pawar’s walkout with a host of MLAs, namely Chhagan Bhujbal, Dilip Walse-Patil and Dhananjay Munde, to join the Eknath Shinde-Led Maharashtra government has virtually split Pawar’s NCP too.

Ajit Pawar, who is believed to have the support of 43 of the 53 NCP MLAs and has been made the Deputy Chief Minister of Maharashtra, is expected to claim to be leading the ‘actual’ NCP, as was once claimed by Eknath Shinde about Sena.

A fractured NCP, an ageing patriarch and a subservient Ajit Pawar, whose political aspirations are being met by the BJP, only lead to one direction — a better tally for the BJP, come the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

In early June, BJP’s Rajya Sabha MP and a leader from the state Prakash Javadekar said, “The people’s faith in PM Modi is our greatest strength and we strongly believe that the BJP will get over 350 seats and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will get over 400 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.”

WEAKENED UDDHAV, SHARAD CHECK-MATED, AND MODI’S ’56-INCH’ CHEST

In politics, perception is the beginning and end of it all. During the Bhatta Parsaul land agitation in Uttar Pradesh in 2011, an otherwise successful Chief Minister Mayawati, was seen to be against farmers. This perception cost her dearly in the Western zone in Uttar Pradesh’s next election, where a sizable chunk of farmers reside.

More recently, regardless of the merits of the Farmers’ Bill, a year-long agitation at Delhi borders by farmers started to create an impression that the BJP was opposed to the interest of farmers.

Unlike Mayawati, the BJP corrected course and withdrew the three contentious bills, only to correct perceptions.

In Indian polity where perception rules, a weak Uddhav Thackeray has left the Sena (UBT) cadre disillusioned and voters seemingly look at casting votes for them as a ‘loss’. With Shinde’s Shiv Sena being a BJP ally, the BJP is well-placed, even before the seat-sharing negotiations.

Notwithstanding Sena leader Sanjay Raut’s claim that Sharad Pawar, the chief architect of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government, is undeterred by the split in his party and can start afresh, the ‘king of Baramati’ will inevitably be reduced to an image of an octogenarian who no longer has everything under his control.

On October 18, 2019, in the run-up to the Vidhan Sabha polls in Maharashtra, Sharad Pawar, 79 years old then, gave a rain-soaked speech that defied his age. He had said that evening, “Varun Raja (rain god) has blessed the NCP. With his blessings, Satara district will now do magic in the upcoming polls.” This age-defying video had electric vibes that went viral immediately. But as of today, the four-time-Chief Minister has a completely different image.

Caught between a weakened son of Bal Thackeray and check-mated ‘last word of Marathwada’, the public will look for an option where their votes count. In India’s domestic politics, the electorate has a tendency to look for someone who is coming from a position of strength, and who better to fit the bill than the ‘56-inch’ fame Narendra Modi?

With Ajit Pawar and Eknath Shinde by his side, it will be a cakewalk for India’s Prime Minister whose party hopes to achieve ‘Ab ki Baar, 350 par’.