After a surplus of rainfall in most parts of India in July, the southwest monsoon has gone from “above normal” to “below normal” in just 15 days into August. The southwest monsoon was reportedly at 5 per cent higher than the long-period average (LPA) at the end of July.
However, as per the latest data, in just 15 days into August, the season’s total downpour fell to 5 per cent below LPA as 263 out of 717 Indian districts (around 36 per cent) received inadequate rainfall with deficits of 20 per cent or more, according to a report by Times of India.
After the active spell in July, which saw 13 per cent higher than normal rains, the monsoon has been weak in the first half of August, with countrywide rainfall reportedly remaining 35 per cent below LPA.
As the rain deficit continues in several eastern and southern states, the threat of drought is looming large. Among the worst-hit states are–Bihar, where rainfall remained inadequate in 31 of the 38 districts; Kerala, where all 14 districts are facing a deficit; Jharkhand, where 21 out of 24 districts are facing a deficit; and UP, where 46 out of 75 districts are facing a deficit.
However, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted rainfall is expected to pick up pace from around August 18.
“The second half of August should see better rainfall. We expect a revival of the monsoon from August 18 or so. It may not be very strong but areas along the west coast and peninsular India are expected to get wet weather, along with rainfall in several states in the east and northeast as well as central India,” TOI reported quoting senior IMD scientist D Sivananda Pai, who was earlier the department’s lead monsoon forecaster.
Earlier, IMD forecasted a “normal” monsoon this year with rainfall remaining in the “lower end of the normal range”. The weather agency predicted monsoon to remain below-normal at 90-94 per cent of the LPA in August.
However, the latest numbers indicate the month may see a higher deficit than what was predicted.
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