One Take | PM’s Confidence vs INDIA’s No-Trust: On Aug 10, BJP’s Power Hitter Modi May Set the Ball Rolling for 2024 Polls

August 8-10 will see the 28th no-confidence motion, as the opposition front, Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), will try to corner Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the Manipur issue.

So far, only three governments have fallen because of the no-confidence motion, the last being the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government in 1999. This is definitely not the case with this government as it is comfortable with the numbers.

In fact, many within the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) say they are looking forward to this no-confidence motion as it will help them score points against the opposition. As one BJP leader said, “PM dho daalenge [in his reply on August 10]…he will wipe out the opposition, you wait and watch."

MODI’s PREDICTION

The BJP says this confidence comes from the fact that three years ago, the PM had predicted that he would face another no-confidence motion in his next term. The last no-confidence motion was in July 2018, when the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) had moved it. A total of 135 members had supported it, while 330 had opposed it. The showstopper of this no-confidence motion was when former MP Rahul Gandhi had gone across to hug the PM after his speech. Rahul Gandhi said that he had hugged the PM because he was always angry and the Congress never hated anyone.

This time, there will be no Rahul Gandhi as he is disqualified. But you will see unlikely brotherhood among the newly found INDIA front.

As bitter enemies, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Congress, are now on the same page, the INDIA front hopes to use its might to ensure the government is cornered on the Manipur issue and the PM breaks his silence.

Congress MP Manickam Tagore said, “We wanted him to speak on Manipur inside Parliament. He broke his silence after 76 days, but outside. This is unacceptable and a no-confidence motion is the only way we can make him speak, even though we may not have the numbers."

This motion also exposes the faultlines in the opposition with parties such as the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP) not voting against the government.

BJP’S CONFIDENCE OVER NO-CONFIDENCE

But what is it that the BJP hopes to gain? The date allotted for the motion is significant. It is towards the end of the Parliament session. It is clear that the PM and BJP wants to have the last word. Also, by that time, all legislations are expected to be cleared.

For the PM, the no-confidence motion is expected to be his big moment, which he will use to hit out at the opposition, especially the INDIA front. In fact, recently, at a National Democratic Alliance (NDA) meeting, the PM had said that the INDIA front was an old wine in new bottle, just a rehash of the United Progressive Alliance.

The PM will use the same narrative and tag which was attached to the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) – of being a listless, slow on decision-making and corrupt alliance. By doing so, the BJP and PM will convey to the voters, that this new front will not offer anything new to the voters.

In all, it is expected to nearly be an election speech to confront the INDIA front, to make the point that he had predicted a no-confidence motion against him and how he is always the target of opposition insults.

With this motion, the PM hopes to settle scores once and for all.