Whether it is luck or divine intervention as Trump’s followers put it, this incident changes everything here on out about the 2024 presidential race.
Now, the US is no stranger to assassination attempts, failed or otherwise, on its Presidents and presidential candidates. From Abraham Lincoln and John F Kennedy, to Ronald Reagan who survived a bullet that ruptured his lung, Trump is the ninth US President candidate to face an assassination attempt.
What could have been a tragic end to the fiery election campaign of the former US president is now a moment etched in history — because Donald Trump had not only survived the assassination attempt, with the bullet grazing his ear just millimetres close to killing him, but he stood back up bravely, pumped his fist in the air and with blood dripping down his face, yelled ‘fight’ at his supporters. When he did this, the chaos on the ground paused and his supporters let out a cheer so loud, it is sure to give the Democrats many, many sleepless nights ahead.
Both pictures capture instantaneous change in perception — one captures the Donald Trump of yesterday — one who was mired in indictments and petty politics and the other shows the Donald Trump of today and possibly, the future — a leader who refused to run off the stage after surviving gunfire, an attempt on his life, and instead addressed the crowd, riling them up with confidence. And what else could they ask for? Their leader had not just survived, but he was fearless, defiant and angry. Could he have looked more presidential in that form? Even for his biggest critics, Trump could not have handled it better. This was straight out of a Hollywood movie.
Now, this single moment, captured perfectly on camera, has put Trump on a pedestal. To his supporters, he is a true hero. His credentials proven by his brave conduct. To his enemies, he’s a bigger threat than ever. And to the fence-sitters, he has earned respect and possibly even their vote.
Before this incident, Trump’s approval rating of 46 per cent was just a point behind Biden’s 47 per cent as per the ABC news poll. But that is likely to change now. Take a look at this – Polymarket, a political prediction platform, shows that following the attempt on his life, Trump’s chances of winning have surged by 8 per cent, reaching an all-time high of 70 per cent.
The shooter was eliminated immediately after he fired a few shots and we are yet to know his exact motivation. But it is an undeniable fact that opposition to Trump in American media had hit a boiling point — trials against him in court seemed unfair to many — depicting him as a criminal on charges related to firstly, paying off Stormy Daniels, a pornstar he allegedly crossed paths with. Then the charges related to mishandling of classified documents when he was President and thirdly, the allegation that he attempted to overturn the election result in the light of the events of January 6, 2021. Critics saw these trials as a way for the Biden administration to cull the opposition and possibly disqualify Trump before the November election. In February, a New York judge handed a penalty so brutal, it threatens to wipeout Trump’s entire stockpile of cash. This was a $355 million penalty in a civil fraud case taking the total penalty on Trump to over $450 million. Many saw these trials as motivated, and intended to bankrupt Trump ahead of the election.
Hyper-polarisation has been evident in American politics for a few years now. Trump and his supporters are often likened with Nazis and his supporters are equally cut off from the Democrats and what they call the “woke mob”. Debates on race, gun control, abortion, immigration and transgender rights have torn the country’s social fabric apart. It’s hard for both sides to see eye-to-eye on anything.
Then there was the debate between Trump and Biden where Biden’s senility got the better of him and triggered a countrywide debate about the President’s mental and physical faculties to go on. Trump won that debate even in the eyes of his biggest critics, and the desperation was evident as they called on Biden to pull out of the race. With less than four months left to spare, the Democrats have started to grasp the possibility of yet another defeat at the hands of Trump. It’s the sense that a future with Trump as President is no future at all that has led to desperate calls to vilify him and remove him from the race by any means possible. This has bred violence that came less than an inch away from taking his life and throwing the country into a very real possibility of civil war. But many others do not still agree — some have openly called it a staged attempt. Others have tried to convey that Trump called it upon himself.
It is, however, in President Joe Biden’s reaction that the Democrats may get the seriousness of the matter. Within hours of the incident, Biden said, “An assassination attempt is contrary to everything we stand for as a nation. It’s not America, and we cannot allow this to happen.”
Today, his message was deeper. He called on the masses to cool down and unite. “I want to speak to you tonight about the need for us to lower the temperature in our politics and to remember, when we disagree, we are not enemies, we are neighbours, we are friends, co-workers, citizens and most importantly, we are fellow Americans. We must stand together,” he said.
The President even pulled out his campaign ads targeting Trump as a “convicted felon” and sent out new ads focusing on his own achievements. Perhaps, this came with the realisation that positive messaging is the need of the hour. But it’s more than just that — the Democrats are fast losing the moral high ground at a time when Trump’s support base is growing and hardening. The rally-around-the-flag effect has come into action, where the people unite around their leader. With just a few months left, it will take a genius strategy if not a miracle for Biden to upturn his decline and prevent a Trump victory.
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