Let’s begin with an important caveat. This is not an argument advancing the need for central rule for Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) in perpetuity.
The status quo where the citizens of the state don’t get to elect a government that is accountable to them is not, after all, tenable.
This fact is not lost even on the Supreme Court. While, in December last year, it upheld the abrogation of Article 370, in the same judgement it had also directed the Election Commission of India to conduct assembly polls in J&K before September 30, 2024. Moreover, the apex court had also directed the Narendra Modi-led NDA government to restore full statehood to J&K by that deadline.
Union home minister Amit Shah, the man in charge of the nation’s internal security, has had no quibble with the SC order. Speaking at a rally ahead of the Lok Sabha elections in May 2024, Shah confirmed that both firmans of the top court would be executed before the deadline lapses.
The Supreme Court’s decision to restore the full panoply of democratic rights is unarguably altruistic, morally and legally correct, but is it the right one? And should Amit Shah and the NDA government oblige the top court at the gavel point? These are complex questions. And so inevitably will be the answers.
In fact, this essay will argue that there is a strong case for delaying elections and strengthening central rule over the benighted region in the near term.
Over the last 32 months, 48 soldiers have been martyred in targeted Islamist strikes on the forces in J&K. The attack in Doda, where the security forces have lost five more of their brave hearts, is but the latest.
And Islamists are not just targeting security personnel but also scores of innocents. The attacks on civilians are most terrifying because they are random cowardly ambushes designed to arouse terror in unsuspecting minds, lulled into complacency by scenes of topical normality. It is true, film halls have opened in the troubled geography for the first time in four decades, curfews and the waves of “intifada” are fading from the headlines. Trade and tourism are at an all-time high. But the recent spike in violence reveals the cast of revanchists, religious obscurantists and Pakistan’s mercenaries is just as committed to prosecuting a case for Azaadi or self-rule at gunpoint.
Many who are championing the need to restore political rights will tell you that these elements cannot be allowed to hold democracy hostage. They will point you in the direction of the just concluded Lok Sabha elections. They will cite the impressive record turnout as evidence that the people of the region are no longer alienated from the mainstream. That they are keen on becoming equal stakeholders in the India story.
These arguments are true only up to a point. There is no doubt that the Lok Sabha election – the first to be held after the abrogation of Article 370 – has reduced the physical, emotional, and psychological gap between the people of J&K – especially residents of the valley – and the Indian state. But the Lok Sabha polls have also revealed that the interface between the people and the state – the contenders – are still deeply aligned to separatist and theocratic impulses that led to the “troubles” in the first place.
The incumbent DGP of Jammu & Kashmir, RR Swain, has openly talked about this nexus. Swain has said, “Pakistan successfully infiltrated all important aspects of civil society, thanks to so-called mainstream or regional politics in the valley. There is ample evidence to show that many had mastered the art of running with the hare and hunting with the hound, which left both the common man and the security forces bewildered, frightened, and confused.”
The campaign and the results of the Lok Sabha elections have revealed that the nexus cited by Swain is still very much in place.
The Lok Sabha elections saw a highly polarised campaign with contenders playing the parochial card lustily. So much so that one of the candidates elected to Parliament is a flaming separatist sympathiser who is serving time in jail for alleged links to the Pakistani deep state. As a matter of fact, Engineer Rashid’s victory was flagged by former J&K chief minister Omar Abdullah as a development that will empower “secessionists”.
Indeed, what is the guarantee that the prospective assembly elections won’t end up being hijacked once again? Only this time to test whether the voter is still receptive to the appeal of Kashmiri separatism.
The Lordships of the Supreme Court need to ask themselves how far they intend to go in their desire to play to the democratic gallery.
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