West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee’s tirade against her INDIA bloc allies continues at the state level, but had the opposition front been successful in convincing the Trinamool Congress, it could have been in pole position in six Lok Sabha seats as part of the seat-sharing pact.
“The BJP has two eyes in Bengal, the Congress and CPM, who want to divide minority vote,” the chief minister said on Tuesday, in a fresh attack against the Congress and Left, which is contesting together in the state. But, the division of minority votes among INDIA bloc allies is a cause for concern in the face of a major challenge by the BJP.
Experts said a favourable seat-sharing pact could have got the INDIA bloc Murshidabad, Malda North, Malda South, Raiganj, Jangipur and Baharampur in northern Bengal. The TMC, as well as the Congress and CPM are putting in all effort into these six seats, as the minority factor will play a significant role. In fact, the Congress and Left can even think of winning one of them. These six seats will go to polls in the second, third and fourth phases of the Lok Sabha elections.
What is the history of Malda-Murshidabad-Dinajpur belt?
Traditionally, these seats were a Congress stronghold. In Baharampur, state Congress president Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury still holds the fort, while Jangipur belonged to former Indian president Pranab Mukherjee; but, his son Abhijit Mukherjee came third last time.
Raiganj was the constituency of Congress minister Priya Ranjan Dasmunsi while Malda essentially voted in the name of former minister ABA Ghani Khan Choudhury.
However, except Baharampur, the Congress ceased to exist in any of these seats and lost its dominance, but still gets some votes out of this area. Experts further said last time, too, the minority votes were divided to an extent and the BJP gained from Raiganj and Malda North.
Last time, when Khagen Murmu won from Malda North, the BJP won by a margin of over 84,298 votes. The TMC won 4,25,226 votes while the Congress won 3,05,270 and the Left won 50,401.
Now, if we add all the votes that the TMC, Congress and Left won in 2019, it would be more than the number of votes the BJP received. So, had the alliance been successful, there was a big chance of defeating the BJP here.
In these seats, the Congress and Left are fighting together, and it looks like Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury and Md Salim may win from Baharampur and Jangipur, respectively. But, the TMC is leaving no stone unturned to campaign that the anti-BJP vote should not go to the Congress and Left.
On Eid, chief minister Mamata Banerjee said: “Don’t give vote to others as they are here with the BJP. The INDIA alliance is in Delhi, but here we are only fighting against the BJP.”
Why is the TMC campaigning against the Congress?
Though the Congress strength has reduced from this area, a sudden win by the party in the Sagardighi bypoll in 2023 projected another side. The TMC has got most of the minority vote since 2011, and the results in 130 minority-dominated seats show its domination.
Sagardighi, which is in Jangipur constituency of Murshidabad, has more than 60 per cent minority domination and suddenly chose to favour the Congress. This was a cause for alarm within the TMC. The Congress vote share in the bypoll was 47 per cent. Until then, the grand old party had no representation in the state legislative assembly.
The bypoll was necessitated after the death of Sagardighi’s TMC MLA in 2022. Bayron Biswas of the Congress won the seat, but soon joined the TMC thereafter. Now, it remains to be seen if the minority votes go to INDIA bloc this time.
Though Chowdhury has been winning from the Baharampur seat since 1999, the TMC was leading in four out seven assembly segments in his constituency in 2019. But, since he had a massive lead in Baharampur, it helped him win the seat.
This is why the TMC has fielded Yusuf Pathan here to give a good fight to Chowdhury, experts said. In 2019, Chowdhury got 45 per cent of the votes and, in 2014, 50 per cent.
So, the third phase of the elections will be interesting as the TMC, Congress and the Left will give a tough fight to each other, while the BJP waits in the wings to derive maximum benefits.
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