Within a fortnight, Pervez Musharraf has pulled off yet another coup of sorts in Pakistan; getting his election ratified by a Bench of handpicked judges; putting his own man as new Army Chief, allowing his political enemies to return home and shedding military uniform without a hitch.
Is Pakistan really on track to becoming a democracy again? Does Musharraf as a civilian President make any difference to Pakistan?
Rezaul H Laskar, PTI's Staff Correspondent in Islamabad, analyse the situation for IBNLive readers on our chatroom in an online chat on Friday. Here we reproduce the full text of the chat:-
Manas: Hi Rezaul, do we infer that the Emergency had been imposed to gain stability in Pakistan? I think Musharraf has been under pressure from the US over economic issues and leaving the chair would have been very uncertain for the future of Pakistan. What do u think about it?
Rezaul H Laskar: Hi Manas, most Pakistanis feel President Musharraf imposed the Emergency for one reason alone — the fact that the Supreme Court might have given an adverse ruling against his candidature in the October 6 presidential poll. He has since tried to bring things around to a position where he could be more in control, but giving up the post of Army Chief has definitely changed things.
Upamanyu: It's a known fact that most of the Pakistanis hate 'the West'. But we still see more and more Pakistanis opting to work/study/settle in the same West. Why cannot they choose a Muslim country? Please explain this paradox.
Rezaul H Laskar: Good question. But you must remember that many Pakistanis have settled in the West, including Britain, US and Canada, where they are important members of the South Asian expatriate community. So it's natural for younger Pakistanis to opt to study in the West. Also, having met some young Pakistanis in the two months that I have been here, let me tell you, they are just like young Indians. Most of them would prefer to study in the West. They have similar tastes in music, movies, art...
Upamanyu: Hello sir, a few days back we got to hear that many soldiers surrendered to the militants in Swat because they did not want to find their own countrymen. But now that we are told that the soldiers have launched a full-fledged offensive in Swat. Why this contradiction? What has changed the minds of the soldiers suddenly?
Rezaul H Laskar: Well, most of those who surrendered were from the paramilitary forces, which recruit more locals from the Swat region. Obviously, they did not want to fight against the militants, some of whom they may even have known personally. The Army was then sent in to take over the operations. But you must remember that the Pakistani Army has not been trained to fight insurgencies — its primary role was to tackle possible threats from India. That is why the US is apparently now taking steps to train the Pakistani forces for fighting militancy.
Valli: What do you think is better for Pakistan: a benevolent dictatorship or a flawed democracy?
Rezaul H Laskar: Interesting question. I think I would opt for flawed democracy. But then the final decision has to be made by the Pakistanis and we have to respect their choice. Please remember that many people had welcomed Gen Musharraf when he deposed Nawaz Sharif in 1999.
Jadav: Hi Rezaulda, do you think Musharaf as a civilian President will be successful? Will Benazir or Nawaz accept him as President?
Rezaul H Laskar: Well, Nawaz Sharif has already said that Musharraf will have to do much more than quitting as Army Chief. It will be difficult for any one to go very far without the backing of the Army. The new Army Chief, Gen Kiyani, is believed to be a non-political personality, but his backing will be key to Musharraf retaining his grip on power.
Rajeev: Hi Rezaul, this is Rajeev from Kolkata. What about press freedom? Has the Musharraf administration eased the controls on the media? What kind of difficulties are media people from other countries facing there?
Rezaul H Laskar: Hi Rajeev, an interesting situation prevails as far as the media is concerned. The print media is rather free to write what it wants. There has been considerable criticism of Musharraf. But it's a whole different ball game with the TV channels. Geo made a comeback today, but only via satellite. Many controversial anchors have been taken off the channels. Despite that, journalists here are a gutsy lot. They deserve respect for the conditions they are working in.
Tamal Mukherjee: Yo Rezaul, I was wondering that how much control does Musharraf have over Pak Army now? Is he still the de facto Army Chief of Pakistan and Gen Kayani practically work under him? Thanks.
Rezaul H Laskar: Gen Kiyani has given enough indications that he is very much his own man. He is also known as a thorough professional, but only time will tell.
Shilpa: Does Musharraf as a civilian President mean any difference from Indian perspective? I don't think Pakistani military is going to change its policy vis-a-vis India even under the new Army Chief. Your comment?
Rezaul H Laskar: Hi Shilpa, you have to keep in mind that things have changed dramatically between our two countries in the past few years. Many people may think the changes are not happening fast enough, but they are changing and mostly for the better. Despite that, complicated issues like Kashmir are not going to be settled soon. The Pakistani military will always be a factor, but the new chief is believed to be a non-political personality who wants to limit the force's role in politics. I think the elections — and the conditions they are held under — are more important than other factors right now.
Vinay Pathak: Under Emergency, does it feel like Taliban rule on Pakistan's streets or is it slightly better?
Rezaul H Laskar: Hi Vinay, this is the surprising bit. If you were to go to Karachi or Lahore or Islamabad, you would never feel this country is under Emergency. Things were different in the first few days, but it is all normal now. You could even go out for dinner in Islamabad as late as 11 pm and the restaurants are packed. Hope that answers your question.
Sunita Mehra: Do you think that the fact that Musharraf bowed down to Bush's demands in any way shows weakness on part of the former Army Chief? It also shows that Musharraf is perhaps not as stubborn as people make him to be. Maybe he is a little too soft.
Rezaul H Laskar: I personally think President Musharraf had few choices left. There are very few options left open to him. His talks with Bhutto have broken down and Nawaz Sharif has made it amply clear that he is not interested in a rapproachment right now.
Gowda: Hi Rezaul, I just want to say that I enjoy all the columns of yours in Indian dailies. You truly analyse situations before presenting them. You are a very secular person also.
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Rezaul H Laskar: Thank you Gowda. Stuff like this is always apprecated. I come from a very orthodox Muslim family, my outlook was shaped by studying in a Roman Catholic school and my Christian and Hindu friends....
Preetham: Hi Rezaul, my question is 'If not Musharraf, who else is capable of taking Pakistan out of the current situation? I believe whoever comes after Musharraf will play in to the hands of the US. Please share your thoughts.
Rezaul H Laskar: The US will continue to try to influence things in Pakistan for a variety of reasons, irrespective of who is in power. As for 'if not Musharraf', well the choices are rather obvious and also rather limited. As I said earlier, this is one decision that has to be made by the Pakistanis. And it isn't going to be an easy decision.
Neha Sharma: Hi Rezaul, Musharraf imposed a ban on Pakistan media during the Emergency. Being a journalist yourself, what was your reaction to that? Did you feel like you and your community had been gagged?
Rezaul H Laskar: Neha, no journalist likes being gagged. It's almost like losing a part of your soul. Hats off to the Pakistani journalists for the way they have coped and dealt with the situation
Greek Fan: What is the perceived stand of the new Army Cheif on the radical elements, Taliban more specifically......?
Rezaul H Laskar: Gen Kiyani is believed to be moderate, pro-West, and a good military strategist.
Bhaskar: What happens to the elections if the biggest coalition boycotts them as they have threatened?
Rezaul H Laskar: The real party that counts right now is the PPP and its leader Benazir Bhutto. If she decides to participate, I don't see the others boycotting the polls
Mahesh: So far, Musharraf had to watch his back for people like Benazir and Nawaz, but now that he has shed Army uniform, do you think he'll have to watch out for the Army as well?
Rezaul H Laskar: Not in the immediate future. The top officers in the Army are all seen as confidants of Musharraf. But it is also a historical fact that the Army has always respected the wishes of the Pakistani people.
Thiagan: Hi Rezaul, this is Thiagan from Chennai. No Muslim majority country in the world has evolved as a stable, functioning and durable democracy in the last 200 years. My fear is Islam is inherently incompatible with democracy, dissent and compromises. Muslim societies perform better with a ruthless dictator like Sadaam, Kemal Attaturk etc. Is Islam responsible for the mess?
Rezaul H Laskar: Interesting question. I personally think it is the distorted version of Islam that contributes to the mess. Islam, per se, doesn't condone some of the things that are happening. In Islam, suicide is forbidden, therefore, there should not even be suicide bombers. Obviously, some people have subverted the religion to suit their ends. I personally don't think any person, irrespective of his/her religion, would prefer a dictator. Also I don't think it is not possible for Islam and democracy to co-exist —150 million Muslims are doing just that in India, almost the same number as the population of Pakistan.
MK Banerjee: What is your prediction? Who will win in the next general election?
Rezaul H Laskar: I don't see any party winning the next election, especially in the current circumstances. The parties will do well in certain provinces, but I don't think anyone will emerge a clear winner.
Rajeev: If after the elections, the political dispensation in power turns against Musharraf, does he face any risk of impeachment or being tried over Emergency and other issues?
Rezaul H Laskar: Well, interesting question... if the Opposition gets its act together, it could pose a serious threat to Musharraf in the next Parliament. But as things stand now, no party is expected to win an overwhelming majority.
Bharadwaj KV: India never came under US pressure for whatsoever reasons. Even the sanctions did not effect the economy. My question to you is, why not Pakistani economists try and get a moderate government that can concentrate on economic reforms?
Rezaul H Laskar: I think most Pakistanis, like most Indians, want better economic conditions. Everyone in Pakistan wants a better economic deal. But you have to keep in mind that Pakistan started economic reforms much later than India. And right now, economic issues are important but they have taken a back seat to the politics.
KJ Ravi: Hello there! This is Ravi from Delhi. Do you think that the civilian Musharraf will be able to emerge from the large shadow of General Musharraf?
Rezaul H Laskar: Very good question. Musharraf has already said he is everything that he is because of the Army. He is obviously looking to the Army to bolster his position. The civilian has taken his first tentative steps. But the shadow of the general continues to loom everywhere.
Kotrak: Hi Rezaul, in the light of whatever is happening in Pakistan, what do you think India should do or hope for? What does the near future hold with respect to Indo-Pak relationship?
Rezaul H Laskar: Well, one can only hope that the good work of the past few years are not rolled back. One can also only hope that whoever comes to power will continue along the path adopted by Musharraf to try and resolve tricky issues like Kashmir. The fear is someone with a hardline stand coming to power and queering the pitch.
MK Banerjee: Do you think that Partition was necessary at all? As you have said just now 150 millions are living in India with harmony, peace and tranquility. My next question is very important. Whether it would be possible in future to unite both India and Pakistan like East Germany and West Germany? People of both countries will be benefited in the end.
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Rezaul H Laskar: You know, the Partition is a reality. I personally feel (and this is my personal opinion), we should all just accept it and move on. Just before I came to Pakstan, my grandmother said my grandfather had planned to move to Pakistan at the time of Partition, but he didn't because his brother did not want to go. She has no regrets, like a majority of Indian Muslims. We should focus on our own countries. We have too many things to take care of.
Anand: It appears to me Benazir Bhutto is trying to play kingmaker if not herself becoming the king? What's the impression about her among common Pakistanis?
Rezaul H Laskar: Benazir Bhutto is going to be a key player, obviously. Her PPP is the biggest party, and she will have a say in any future set-up. She is keen on being Prime Minister again, but the current laws bar that. So she may be forced to play a larger role from the background. Many common Pakistanis support her, but then her family is one of the best known political entities in the country.
Tamal Mukherjee: As you are thinking that 'no party is expected to win an overwhelming majority' in the coming election, are we gonna witness more chaos and drama in January 2008 in Pakistan? What options Pakistan have if no party gets a majority? President Rule!!
Rezaul H Laskar: Well, everyone seems to think that the chaos will continue. Unless there is a major change before the polls on January 8. And yes 'President's rule' remains an option.
Gokul: Do you think fair election is possible in Pakistan under the leadership of Musharraff ? Is there any point in Sharif abstaining from it?
Rezaul H Laskar: Mr Sharif's demand for the restoration of the judiciary stems from his apprehensions about certain pending corruption cases and his earlier conviction. Thus his move to abstain. But most political parties believe elections under the current dispensation will not be free and fair.
Sreehari: Who do you think will be better for India, Benazir or Nawaz Sharif?
Rezaul H Laskar: India has dealt with both of them in the past. Many diplomats feel it would be better dealing with them again rather than some unknown politician.
Choprasons: I have also read that a number of Pakistanis are actually happy even under Musharraf as a militry President? Is it so? If so why?
Rezaul H Laskar: Interesting question. Like all political leaders, Musharraf too has his supporters. There are websites in his support, there are people who say he helped kickstart economic reforms. You have to remember he was welcomed by many people when he deposed Nawaz Sharif. But many of his recent decisions have been unpopular.
Kuhu Bansal: Is there any possibility that new elected government will reinstate CJ Chowdhary and that all the judgements given taken under PCO be termed as illegal including the validity of election of Mush as President? If the possibility is there, then what will Mr President do?
Rezaul H Laskar: It is extremely unlikely that the President will reinstate Justice Chaudhry, who continues to be under house arrest.
AB: Hi Rezaul, do you think the Opposition parties will do the right thing by boycotting the poll?
Rezaul H Laskar: My personal opinion is that they have valid reasons for the boycott, but I don't think they can keep away if Bhutto goes ahead and contests.
M Vijay Balaji: Are there similar chats, discussions about Indian affairs in Pakistan?
Rezaul H Laskar: You will be surprised...there are. There is a lot of interest, especially in Indian movies. And people are interested in Indian politics and will privately express admiration for our system, despite its flaws.
Rajeev: Rezaul, do Indians like you and other people from outside who live in Pakistan have to live in some kind of uncertainty everyday?
Rezaul H Laskar: A very emphatic no, Rajeev. All the stuff you read about Pakistanis going out of their way to help Indians is by and large true. I had a Pakistani cab driver return my mobile phone which had slipped out of my pocket at 11.30 pm by coming back to my home. I can’t think of that happening in most Indian cities... But obviously you have to take care to respect local traditions and norms.
Tamal Mukherjee: Do you count Imran Khan as No. 3 (after Benazir and Sharif) in Pakistan? How crucial his role will be in the next election?
Rezaul H Laskar: Tamal, Imran is well-respected in India and abroad. But his party doesn't really count. It's just too small. He was in fact its only MP in the last Parliament.
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