Patna: "Sir look, we have got water for you from afar. Please show our leader Narendra Modi in a good light."
AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal should have been there to see how the Modi brigade was trying the "bribe" the media by a mere mineral water bottle in Patna. Media would have never been purchased so cheap. In the scorching heat, sitting out in the open, all we wanted was chilled mineral water, and due to the heavy security cordon, we were not allowed to move out of the media enclosure.
Left high and dry, the enthusiastic young BJP volunteers were sweet enough to arrange constant supply of water for more than 200 mediapersons covering the event. With every bottle being handed over, the smiling guys tried to take some pro-Modi assurance from us. A sweet gesture indeed.
But what was most striking was the commitment this young cadre displayed. Commitment to promote 'brand Modi' in whatever little way they could. Surely, these guys were doing this on their own, not under the order of any senior BJP leader. Impressed, I was thinking, "How lucky Modi is to have such a committed team of young workers."
These small little efforts, these suo-motu initiatives, when clubbed together must be contributing significantly to the build up of what we call a 'Modi wave'.
As a journalist, who has followed Bihar and its politics for over 15 years now, I see the present 2014 Lok Sabha polls in the state being fought between just two factions - the ones who are with Modi and the ones who are not. The other issues of caste equations, development and especially that of 'special status' for Bihar, which Chief Minister Nitish Kumar flaunts as his party's agenda, have somehow become peripheral in this election.
The reason why NaMo took such a centrestage in Bihar, more than the other states, is because of the totally strained relationship between Nitish and him. They almost behave like two estranged brothers fighting a battle over their ancestral property. Rather worse. What should have been a political rivalry has become a personal enmity now. The decency and decorum have all been put aside and personal scores are being settled at every given opportunity, the reason why NaMo has become the election's epicenter in Bihar.
According to me, Nitish himself is the biggest campaigner for Modi.
I believe that the best weapon Nitish could have used against Modi was to just ignore him in his speeches. The more he attacked him, it helped NaMo become a bigger player in Bihar, a state where no bureaucrat or JDU workers takes the Gujarat strongman's name in public fearing the ire of the government.
Apart from Modi, it's the traditional caste factor which plays the most crucial role in Bihar. Bihar might have changed but not its caste-centric politics, the reason why all the political parties are trying to get the caste dynamics right, even as overtly the campaign focuses on development, corruption and national security. The candidates' list of all major political parties in Bihar, be it the BJP, Janata Dal United, Rashtriya Janata Dal, Lok Janshakti Party or the Congress, is a clear testimony to this fact how caste leaders have been appeased and representation given to all castes which matters.
In the last eight years of his rule, Nitish has cemented his caste combination very smartly - a combination of Maha-Dalits, backwards and extremely backwards, of course excluding Yadavs and Paswans.
But the real litmus test of Nitish's politics would be to woo minorities - whether they go and vote for the Congress-RJD combine or they come Nitish's way. Nitish has already displayed his love for them and sent a message by putting his government in danger, by breaking 15-year-old marriage with the BJP, just to lure minorities.
But on the polling day, whether minorities bet on the Congress-led coalition as an answer to stop NaMo's rath (or chariot) or they trust regional players like JDU is the million dollar question. Nitish has put at stake his political acumen and if his bet goes wrong, he would be heading for serious trouble.
The opposition is not a sitting duck. They are working overtime to find an answer to Nitish's formidable caste combination. Getting Ram Vilas Paswan and Koiri leader Upendra Kushwaha on its side, BJP is just trying to add major chunk of 6 per cent Paswan and 5 per cent Koiri voters to its arsenal.
Traditionally, Lalu Prasad's Yadav voters and Ram Vilas's Paswan voters are seen as transferable votes, which follow the dictate of Lalu and Ram Vilas. BJP is also banking on a split in Muslim votes (over 15 per cent) between JDU and RJD-Congress-NCP combine, which will make life easier for team NaMo.
Amidst the permutation and combinations, the exit polls have left a bitter taste for Nitish, putting him somewhere near 6-8 seats out of 40. Irked Nitish has now joined the "hate media" club along with Kejriwal.
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