Think-tank warns India against attacks

New Delhi: A premier US think-tank has cautioned India against "more spectacular attacks" by terrorists, saying such incidents could also create "bigger problems" for Pakistan than it could handle.

The Srategic Foresight Inc, known as Stratfor, warned that Kashmiri militant outfits were being increasingly drawn into the global jihadist camp, and "if Pakistan is unable to reassert its control over the Kashmiris before such an attack occurs, it could find that the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) has created a bigger problem than Islamabad can handle".

"A major attack on India with thousands dead will find New Delhi in a much less forgiving mood", the Austin-based think-tank said.

In a recent report, it said Pakistan "still has a firm grip on the larger, more mainstream Islamist groups operating within its borders and in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, such as Hizbul Mujahedeen and the United Jihad Council."

"But groups like LeT, Al Badr and Jaish-e-Mohammad are much more autonomous. Though Pakistan still maintains some tacit contact with and control over them, these groups, for the most part, operate independently of Islamabad since they were banned" in the fallout of the 2001 attack on Parliament, the Stratfor report said.

The American think-tank, which provides situational awareness reports and actionable intelligence in different areas like geopolitics and security, pointed out that the serial Mumbai train blasts had not provoked any communal backlash and the western metropolis got back to normal the very next day.

It said as the LeT "gets more frustrated" with its inability to provoke communal violence, it would resort to "larger and more outrageous attacks (and) the ante will be upped for Pakistan".

The terrorist aim would be to provoke communal frenzy, with Hindus attacking Muslims leading to "an upsurge of new recruits and support for militancy" challenging the Indian polity, the Stratfor report said.

Therefore, it claimed that outfits like LeT and Al Badr "are beginning to weave radical new plots against India which could spell trouble for both New Delhi and Islamabad".

It also referred to the Mumbai police's reported statements on two Pakistani members of Al Badr recently arrested from Mysore, Mohd Fahad, had allegedly tried to learn to fly a jetliner on the orders of the outfit's leadership in Pakistan.

The use of an aircraft as a weapon of mass destruction would cause many more casualties, the Stratfor said referring to the terrorists' agenda.