The elections in the Northeast state of Mizoram are only three months away. The main political parties of the state have started to prepare themselves for the elections. If the ruling Mizo National Front (MNF), led by Chief Minister Zoramthanga has been busy strategising its election campaign, then the Opposition parties of the state too aren’t behind. They are also preparing themselves to take on the MNF, which has been ruling the state since 2018, and is forming alliances with other smaller parties.
ZPM’s alliance with HPC
In the last assembly elections, the Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM), fighting for the first time, sprang a surprise by winning eight seats and emerging as the second-largest party in the state assembly by pushing the Congress to third place. The party’s hopes have risen after it won the Lunglei Municipal Council elections this year. In the council elections, held for the first time, the party swept all the 11 seats with a vote share of 49.31 per cent votes. Notably, four assembly constituencies, currently all held by the MNF, come under the council.
This time, the party is hoping to come to power in the state. Although the dates of the assembly elections are yet to be declared, the party is already in poll mode. It has declared candidates for the 39 assembly constituencies of the state. In another crucial move ahead of the elections, it decided to ally with the Hmar People’s Convention (HPC) last month, a marginal party having a base among the Hmars, one of the ethnic minorities of the state. According to the agreement, the HPC wouldn’t put any candidates and support the ZPM candidates in the elections, and the two parties would also work together for the Sinlung Hills Council elections to be held next year. The last time the HPC won a seat in the state assembly was in the 2003 state elections.
The state has three Hmar-dominated assembly constituencies — Serlui, Tuivawl and Chalfilh. ZPM wants to wrest these seats, currently held by the MNF, and that’s the reason it has decided to ally with HPC. It has to be mentioned that HPC was an ally of the ruling MNF in the first elections of the SHC, held in 2019. In the elections, the MNF-HPC combine swept the council by winning 10 seats out of 12.
Of the three seats, only in the Chalfilh seat, the ZPM was the runner-up in the last assembly elections. It lost the seat against MNF by a margin of more than 6 per cent votes. In the Serlui seat, the party was a distant third while in the Tuivawl seat, the party came fourth, even behind the BJP. In both Serlui and Tuivawl seats, MNF defeated the Congress, which undoubtedly has been relegated to third place in state politics after the 2018 state elections. With Congress declining in the state, the ZPM sees a chance in these seats and that’s the reason it has allied with HPC in an attempt to bring together non-MNF votes as much as possible. However, how much this alliance will really benefit the ZPM in terms of winning seats is a question.
Congress hopes for a comeback with the help of new allies
The Congress, which lost power to MNF in 2018, is looking for a comeback in the state through the upcoming elections. What’s made it difficult for the party is the changing ground situation of the Northeast state, which has almost turned into a bipolar contest between the ruling MNF and the Opposition ZPM, leaving less space for the grand old party. This, however, isn’t the first time that the party has been relegated to third place. Back in the 1998 elections, the party not only lost power to MNF, it was relegated to third place in the state assembly with Mizoram People’s Conference emerging as the second-largest party. MPC won the state elections in both the 1978 and 1979 elections and ruled the state till 1985.
These are just statistics from history and it is not that history repeats every time. In the Lunglei municipal polls, Congress was a distant third player. Aware of its critical situation, the beleaguered Congress this time has even formed an alliance called Mizoram Secular Alliance to stay afloat in the state’s politics. As of now, two parties — the Zoram Nationalist Party and the People’s Conference Party — have joined the alliance.
ZNP won two seats in both the 2003 and 2008 state elections. However, it failed to win any seat in the 2013 state elections. In 2014, it entered into an alliance with the BJP, though the alliance didn’t last long. Later, ZNP along with five other parties, including the MPC, formed the alliance called ZPM. After ZPM turned into a political party, MPC severed ties from the alliance but its three legislators elected as ZPM candidates chose to remain as a part of ZPM. Later, the ZNP too, quit the alliance. After merging with People’s Representation for Identity and Status for Mizoram (PRISM), MPC became the People’s Conference Party in 2020.
ZNP and PCP are currently minor parties looking to gain a foothold in the state. By allying with the Congress, these parties are likely to get a section of votes and even win one or two seats but how much these parties, which were once anti-Congress, are going to benefit the grand old party is a big question.
BJP likely to fight elections alone
While the Opposition parties like ZPM and the Congress are banking on alliances to fight against the MNF in the upcoming elections, it seems the BJP, as of now, is going to fight the elections alone. Finding allies has been a difficult task for the saffron party as it has failed to gain a foothold in the Mizo-dominated areas. As a result, the party mostly has a negligible presence among the majority Mizos and that’s the reason the state parties hesitate to ally with the saffron party.
The ruling MNF, despite nationally being a part of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, has been avoiding the saffron party in the state. It didn’t even give the post of a minister to the lone saffron MLA Buddha Dhan Chakma in the state cabinet. However, it is not only for the Mizo votes that the MNF is avoiding an alliance with the saffron party, which has a significant presence in some pockets of the state where ethnic minorities like Chakmas and Maras have a presence. By allying with the BJP, the MNF fears that it would cede the space to the former in these pockets.
The author is a political commentator and tweets @SagarneelSinha. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
Comments
0 comment