The end of the year 2023 merits a close look at developments over the last 12 months to discern how India has been able to achieve its objectives, not only on the domestic social, political and economic fronts but also in the area of foreign policy. While some of the major developments like the successful presidency of India of the G20, the first time that the G20 was hosted by India after it was established in 2008, and the consequential state visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the United States in June 2023 become immediately obvious, it is essential to have a closer examination of India’s performance on the foreign policy front to arrive at a balanced assessment of its achievements and losses.
G20 Presidency
India heralded many firsts in hosting the G20 Summit in September 2023 in New Delhi. While accepting the Chairmanship of the G20 in November 2022 in Bali, Indonesia, PM Modi had declared that India’s Presidency would be “inclusive, ambitious, action-oriented and decisive.” The final outcome of the summit demonstrated that India was able to fully measure up to the commitment that PM Modi made at the Bali Summit in 2022.
The biggest triumph was the finalisation of the consensus Leaders’ Declaration by the afternoon on the first day of the summit itself as against all the misgivings about India’s ability to arrive at an agreed document before the end of the two-day deliberations. It demonstrated the growing influence of the country.
India also effectively articulated the concerns as well as aspirations of the developing countries by organising two Voice of the Global South Summits. A concrete demonstration of India’s commitment to promoting the interests of the Global South was the induction of the African Union (AU) as the 21st Member of the G20 grouping on the first day of the summit.
In addition to these momentous successes, India was able to delineate significant progress on the substantive aspects also. Some of these included the progress towards achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which were facing regression on account of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict; the debt trap being experienced by many countries, particularly from the Global South; NITI Aayog’s workshop on ‘Green Development Pact For A Sustainable Future’; promoting women-led development; increased use of public digital Infrastructure (PDI); reform of Multilateral Development Banks to better respond to the needs and demands of developing countries; ensuring strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth; countering terrorism and money laundering, and more.
In the domestic context, India took the G20 to the far reaches of the country. More than 200 meetings were organised in 59 far-flung cities of the country, making it a case of Jan Bhagidaari (people’s participation). This provided a flavour of the richness and diversity of India’s culture to the participating foreign delegations. India used some of these meetings to its political advantage by hosting them in Srinagar, J&K; Leh, Ladakh, and Itanagar, Arunachal Pradesh (AP). Participation by an overwhelming number of foreign delegations in these meetings demonstrated their support for India’s position in its disputes with China and Pakistan.
India’s G20 Presidency was steered under the theme of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam: One Earth, One Family, One Future.
The summit provided an opportunity to India to play host to some of the most consequential world leaders like US and French Presidents, Japanese and Australian Prime Ministers as well as the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Presidents of UAE and Brazil, PM of Bangladesh and many more. Russian President Putin did not attend, ostensibly because he was preoccupied with the war with Ukraine. The Chinese President also did not attend. He might have calculated that his absence would dilute the importance of the summit, and the credit to India would stand diminished. Exactly the opposite happened. His absence went a long way to improve the atmospherics of the summit, and India and Prime Minister Modi garnered all the glory for organising a flawless summit.
The successful conduct of the year-long Presidency of G20 by India provided it a huge shot in the arm and catapulted it to a pole position in finding solutions to the major challenges confronting the world.
Relations with US
In May 2022, at the bilateral meeting with US President Biden on the sidelines of the Quad Meeting in Tokyo, PM Modi termed the bilateral relationship a “partnership of trust”. In June 2022, the White House called relations with India “the most important for the United States in the 21st century.”
Bilateral ties were taken to the next level in 2023 with the invitation to PM Modi by President Biden to pay an official state visit to the US. PM Modi was also invited by the Leaders of the US Senate and House of Representatives to address the joint session of the US Congress during his visit. With this Address, PM Modi became one of the few world leaders and the only Indian leader to address the US Congress on more than one occasion, having addressed the US Congress earlier in June 2016.
The visit witnessed a decisive impetus to high technology collaboration between the two countries in defence, critical and emerging technologies, clean energy, telecommunications, resilient supply chains, Open RAN, 5G/6G technologies, AI, Quantum Computing, space, semiconductor chips and many more. In addition, investments of several billions of dollars were announced by many US firms. Micron Technology, Inc. announced it will invest up to $825 million to build a new semiconductor assembly and test facility in India.
In the area of defence, an MoU was signed between General Electric of the US and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited of India for the transfer of technology and joint production of GE-F414 jet engines for India’s indigenous Tejas light combat aircraft. It is evident that the US has made the strategic decision to catapult India into the ranks of technologically advanced countries. This is evidence of the growing trust between the two leaders and the countries.
A small hiccup surfaced in bilateral ties with the indictment of an Indian national Nikhil Gupta by the US authorities in a plot to assassinate a US citizen, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, who has been declared a terrorist by India for his activities to create a separate state of Khalistan in India. India denied any official involvement but set up a Committee to look into the evidence and information shared by the US authorities. This incident is unlikely to have any long-term impact on the rapidly burgeoning bilateral ties. It is however incumbent upon the US law enforcement authorities to take stern action against the activities of anti-Indian elements in the US.
India had invited President Biden as the chief guest at India’s Republic Day on January 26, 2024, This would have been followed by the meeting of Quad leaders for which PMs of Japan and Australia had agreed to visit India on January 27, 2024. The regret by Biden to visit India in January 2024, on account of his domestic preoccupations, was seen by some as a “snub” to India. This impression was vigorously refuted by Jake Sullivan, US National Security Advisor (NSA), saying that President Biden is “personally committed” to deepening ties with India and shares a “close personal bond” with PM Modi.
Presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
At the culmination of its Presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in 2022-23, India organised a productive virtual summit on July 4, 2023. Prior to that, India had organised several other meetings, some of them virtually and some in person.
During its Presidency, India launched new initiatives to enhance engagement among people by holding several diverse events. India established five new pillars of cooperation within the SCO viz. Startups and Innovation, Traditional Medicine, Youth Empowerment, Digital Inclusion, and Shared Buddhist Heritage.
Two thematic joint statements were adopted at the summit in addition to the New Delhi Declaration. One on cooperation in countering radicalisation leading to separatism, extremism and terrorism and the second on cooperation in the field of digital transformation. India provided fresh energy and direction for SCO’s growth and development in the coming years.
Some “experts” maintain that considerable harm was done by hosting the summit in a virtual format. My view is exactly the opposite. No purpose would have been served by playing host to the leaders of China and Pakistan keeping in view the existing adversarial relations with these countries. Secondly, it would have been uncomfortable, optically and substantively, to have had the leaders of Iran, Russia, Belarus and others, who maintain hostile ties with the West, on Indian soil within two weeks of PM Modi’s path-breaking state visit to the US on June 22-23, 2023.
The BRICS Summit
The BRICS Summit held in Johannesburg, South Africa on August 22-23 attracted unusual attention from international media, primarily because of the interest of about 40 countries to become members of the organisation. There was also considerable media speculation that a big push would be made towards de-dollarisation by moving towards a new currency. There was apprehension that the BRICS might move towards becoming an anti-Western and pro-China organisation.
Ultimately it was decided to admit six new countries viz. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, Ethiopia, Argentina (which subsequently declined the offer to join) and Egypt. India enjoys warm and cordial relations with all of them. It even has strategic partnerships with some of them viz. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt etc.
As the BRICS stands today, there is little risk of it becoming anti-Western or India’s influence being diminished. India will however need to remain vigilant. Russia is the next chair of BRICS. Pakistan has expressed its interest in becoming a member of BRICS. India will need to resist this move firmly.
No discussions on the issue of de-dollarisation took place at the Johannesburg Summit except an encouragement to the countries to trade in their national currencies.
G7 and The Quad
PM Modi has been regularly invited to G7 Summits since the Biarritz Summit in France in 2019. The fifth invitation in a row for the G7 Summit in Japan was testimony to India’s growing sway in global affairs. PM Modi participated in the G7 and Quad Summits, both held in Hiroshima, Japan in May 2023. The Quad Summit was to be held in Australia but was shifted at the last minute to Hiroshima as President Biden was required to cancel his visit to Australia from Japan and return home on account of urgent debt negotiations in Washington DC.
The third Quad Summit provided an excellent opportunity for the leaders to share their strategic assessment about developments in the region, including in the Indo-Pacific as also their shared vision of activity-based cooperation among the Quad countries across a whole range of areas. A joint statement and a vision document were issued. Both documents focus on the positive agenda of cooperation, not just among the Quad countries, but also between the Quad countries, bilaterally as also collectively, with the members of the Indo-Pacific. These included the Indo-Pacific Partnership on Maritime Domain Awareness; the Quad Investors Network called QUIN; Clean Energy Supply Chains, principles of software security etc.
Relations with Canada nosedive
In a totally unexpected move, Canadian PM Justin Trudeau soon after returning from India after attending the G20 Summit, announced in the Canadian Parliament on September 18 that there were “credible allegations” that the Indian government was involved in the killing of a Canadian citizen, a Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar on June 18, 2023. It expelled a senior Indian official from the Indian High Commission in Ottawa without providing any evidence of his involvement. The Indian Foreign Office termed these charges as “absurd and motivated”. India’s External Affairs Minister, S Jaishankar, categorically stated that it is not India’s policy to engage in extra-territorial killings. He added that no specific or relevant information had been shared by Canada with India and if any such information was provided, India would be prepared to look at it. India maintains that the real issue is the space provided by Canada to anti-Indian elements to carry out anti-Indian activities within Canada and India.
Till date, Canada has not provided any evidence of India’s involvement in Nijjar’s killing. PM Trudeau has done a tremendous disservice to Canada’s credibility and reputation and to bilateral relations with his baseless charges. It would be a fallacy to equate the US’ charges of a plot to kill Pannun with the allegations made by Canada. The US has provided some concrete information based on which a Committee has been established by India to look into the allegations. Canada has failed to provide any specific information even after six and a half months of Nijjar’s killing.
Russia, Israel-Hamas Conflict and China
The annual summit between India and Russia did not take place in 2023, like in 2022. The last annual summit was in December 2021. Regular and frequent meetings between EAM and Russian FM however took place throughout the year to keep the relations on an even keel. Russia emerged as the largest supplier of crude oil to India in 2023.
India has adopted a position of moral and strategic clarity on the conflict between Israel and Hamas. It unequivocally condemned the terrorist attack by Hamas and their taking of Israeli hostages. It expressed its support for a two-state solution, sent humanitarian relief to Gaza and advocated the observance of humanitarian law in the attacks by Israeli forces in Gaza.
Relations with China continued to be under stress and abnormal. China issued a standard map showing the whole of Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh as part of China. India lodged a “strong protest” over the “absurd claims” made by China.
Incoming and Outgoing Visits
During the year, PM Modi visited France in July 2023 as chief guest at France’s National Bastille Day. He also visited Egypt, Australia, Dubai for COP28 and some other countries.
Several high-ranking visits to India took place viz. by Kings of Bhutan and Cambodia, Sultan of Oman, Chancellor of Germany, Presidents of Egypt as chief guest at India’s Republic Day, Kenya, Tanzania, Sri Lanka, PMs of Italy, Japan, Australia and several others.
All the above interactions provided a strong impetus to India’s ties with the world.
An unanticipated jolt appeared in the form of an emphatic defeat at the hands of Pakistan in the election for a rather light-weight position of Vice President of UNESCO. MEA and the Ministry of Education, which looks after this organisation, will need to undertake a detailed postmortem to understand the reasons for this debacle and ensure that it is not repeated.
Conclusion
In these turbulent times, India has charted a bold and measured course in conducting its foreign policy. It has adopted an issue-based approach to strengthen its ties with different countries on the basis of convergence of interests and positions in diverse areas. In this respect, 2023 has been both rewarding as well as challenging. At the end of the year, India can look back with satisfaction and confidence at its achievements in the competitive arena of foreign policy. This will provide it with the courage and determination to overcome the risks and threats it is bound to confront in 2024.
The writer is executive council member, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, president, Institute of Global Studies, Distinguished Fellow, Ananta Aspen Centre, and former Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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