New Delhi: Born out of students' grassroots movements and students’ agitations, Narhari Amin — an old Congress hand who joined BJP in 2012 — has thrown his hat in the ring and made the upcoming Rajya Sabha elections in Gujarat very interesting. With 103 and 73, both BJP and Congress were poised to get two seats each of the four Rajya Sabha seats that will go to polls on March 26.
However, by fielding a candidate like Amin, the BJP disturbed this equilibrium and made it clear that it is in the running for another seat that can only land in the BJP's kitty with support of some Congress MLAs.
This is how the math goes. BJP has 103 MLAs and Congress 73. After ensuring the victory of its two candidates, BJP will be left with 29 extra votes while Congress, after ensuring victory of one of its candidates, will have 36 votes left for its second candidate. Now, BJP has fielded Abhay Bhardwaj, a Brahmin from Rajkot, and Ramila Bara, a tribal. Congress has announced Shaktisinh Gohil, a Kshatriya from Bhavnagar, and Bharatsinh Solanki, an OBC from central Gujarat, as its two candidates.
A new caste element comes with the candidature of Narhari Amin, a Patidar with some stature in state politics. Amin cut his teeth in a remarkable students’ movement, in fact, the first large-scale anti-corruption movement of Gujarat — the Navnirman Andolan of 1974. The movement was so successful that Jayprakash Narayan was said to have been inspired by its force and success. Amin was one of the most identifiable faces of that movement and its success could be gauged from its ability to topple the government of the then Gujarat CM Chimanbhai Patel.
In an interesting turn of events, Amin went on to become a trusted lieutenant to Patel and was entrusted with the role of Gujarat's deputy chief minister in the Congress government. Amin’s gradual easing out of the state politics, it could be argued, started with his ouster from Gujarat Cricket Association in 2009. Then, in 2012, after being denied ticket by the Congress, Amin joined the BJP where he has since been working closely with senior leaders of his new party.
Amin’s inclusion in the race shows that BJP is serious about winning the third seat from Gujarat. However, with the calculation of votes, as highlighted earlier, this can only happen if the two MLAs of Chotubhai Vasava's Bhartiya Tribal Party, one MLA of Nationalist Congress Party also support Amin's candidature. This also won't be enough. BJP will need four more votes that will have to come from Congress.
BJP could be confident because such a scenario has played out earlier as well, for instance in 2017, when a number of Congress MLAs shifted their loyalties to the BJP just before the Rajya Sabha elections. Last year, Alpesh Thakor and his trusted aide Dhavalsinh had also cross-voted for BJP which they later joined. There are reports of Congress holding on to its flock pretty closely but how successful it will be will be clear in 10 days from now.
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