Sensing trouble after reported consolidation of Muslim-Yadav votes in favour of the Janata Dal United-Rashtriya Janata Dal-Congress Mahagathbandhan, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has fired a fresh salvo by publicising a letter by Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar in which he had made a series of allegations against Lalu Prasad.
The pattern of voting in the first two phases of Bihar Assembly elections has given sleepless nights to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. Not only Muslims but women have also come out in large numbers to caste their votes which has been the constituency of Lalu and Nitish respectively.
The voting in remaining three phases is crucial and that is why BJP has come out with all guns blazing in their arsenal targeting Nitish and Lalu. BJP has given a full back page advertisement on Hindi Daily Hindustan in Bihar targeting Nitish. The advertisement neither counts the achievements of the Narendra Modi government nor alleged failures of Nitish Kumar in Bihar. But it recalls a letter written by Nitish Kumar in 1992 when he had targeted the Lalu, who was the Bihar chief minister and leader of Janata Dal.
Without naming any caste, the advertisement highlights the support to a particular caste and strangulating the system of social justice in the state by giving them priority in administration and recruitment. In the letter Nitish had blamed Lalu of supporting a particular caste and favouring them in appointments and promotions. Nitish had also mentioned the name of a college in Patna where all the staffs belong to the same caste.
But the million dollar question is the identity of the caste in the letter. Which particular caste did Lalu favour? Social scientist Shaibal Gupta, associated with Asian Development Research Institute (ADRI), laughs and says, “It is a well known fact. In the letter he (Nitish) is definitely talking about the Yadav caste.”
But after the two phase of polling, why is the BJP is publicising a letter written 23 years ago? On this issue Gupta says, “Right now the pattern of voting indicates that Mahagathbandhan has an edge over NDA and the Nitish-Lalu chemistry is working. The Muslim-Yadav equation looks firmly standing behind Lalu-Nitish after the first two phase of voting. This is the reason of restlessness among BJP leaders and its allies and the advertisement is the result of this frustration.”
According to him, through this ad BJP is trying to warn non-Yadav backwards along with other castes in the state. “BJP is still trying to wean away Yadav votes in its favour and wants to let them realise what Nitish thinks about them. And there will be no advantage for them if Nitish is voted to power again. On the other hand BJP is sending a message among non-Yadav OBC voters to remember the Lalu era when they were ignored at the cost of Yadavs."
However, senior journalist Surendra Kishore differs from Shaibal Gupta. He says, “ after the first two phases even BJP has realised that Yadavs won't vote for the party in the remaining rounds. So, BJP is now targeting them by sending the message that other backward castes and Dalits would be alienated if Mahagathbandhan comes to power."
He also adds that the timing of the ad will not make any impact as voters have already decided whom they would vote for.
According to him, the biggest damage was done by RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat by giving on statement about reconsidering reservation. “So, Bhagwat has already done the irreparable harm to the BJP. After this statement, the other backward castes have also moved towards Mahagathbandhan.”
However, Shaibal Gupta says that it is too early to reach at any conclusion. For him areas that went to polls in the first two phases have traditionally been the stronghold of JDU-RJD and the real test lies in the next two phases.
The outcome of Bihar assembly election is key for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP-led NDA government at the Centre. It will not only evaluate the Modi wave but also set the precedent for forthcoming elections in West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh, scheduled to be held early in 2016 and 2017.
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