Almost 10 months into campaigning and unprecedented month of primaries, at least, one party has almost got its nominee – it isn't the GOP (Republican Party). I will try to decipher the presidential nomination election until now and what holds for each candidate from here on and their path forward to get the nomination or if they have any realistic shot at the presidency.
(Under full disclosure, I am a Rubio Republican and probably my views might be biased but I would try to put in hard data and events to support my views)
Let me start with the Democrats. It began with three major candidates running for the president and as of today, it very much looks like Mrs. Hillary Clinton is the nominee for the Democratic Party.
Hillary Rodham Clinton: As Ruth Eastman (a character from The Good Wife- if you aren’t watching The Good Wife- your life sucks- you suck- stop reading this- go download it- no wait- piracy is bad- hahaha- torrents) put it – Hillary Rodham Clinton is a giant. Being the first lady of Arkansas, the first lady of USA, Senator from New York, unsuccessful bid for the presidency in 2008 and then followed by Secretary of State- she is the establishment. If somebody asked me to define establishment in 2 words, my response would be Hillary Clinton.
Hillary has been plotting her campaign, planning her moves (devame, totally John Grisham Style) handpicking her strategist, team and ground staff since 2012. When she announced for her run, even though she comes with a lot of baggage, many Democrats secretly hoped for Elizabeth Warren (Senior Senator from Massachusetts) to throw her candidacy in the ring. But fortunately for Hillary and unfortunate for the nation, she came out and clarified she would not be running. As more Hillary baggage began to unfold (Private email server scandal and Benghazi), the poor little Democrats’ eyes rose to a new savior in Vice President Joe Biden to take on Hillary in the primaries.
But in an anti-climax announcement from the White House’s Rose Garden with wife and POTUS on his side, he refused to run for the presidency and take on Hillary. Edda paavi! As Megan Carpentier put it, time to suck it up and support Hillary. Democrat unison sigh - Ente deviame – we are stuck with a Grandma.
Hillary having the backing of the complete Democratic National Party establishment- endorsed by thirteen sitting governors, forty senators, and one hundred fifty-eight representatives- took on a little-known socialist senator from Vermont. (Goliath Vs David) Of course, there was Martin O’ Malley (61st Governor of Maryland) in the mix, but he was just white noise. Nobody cared. Like Uday Chopra in Dhoom movies- you know he is there- but then you go to watch Aishwariya Rai do a dhoom macchale with Hrithik Roshan- Right?
With massive labor union backing and having created a firewall of Black demographics and most of the Hispanic demographics – she had won the nomination much before the first caucus in Iowa began on Feb 1.
The minority demographics define the current Democrat voter base. Then came Iowa Caucus, which is technically not a Democrat demographic but more of white populated state with strong unions. Hillary won the state marginally, thanks to her union votes. (More about Bernie Sanders appeal in section below). The next primary was New Hampshire- again not a democrat demographic state and a state next to Vermont. The Vermont son was favorite to win the state since late August 2015. And so as predicted Bernie Sanders wins by 22.4 points over Hillary beating his RCP average points by 9.1 points. Some panic in the press- probably- Panic at Clinton for America Brooklyn Headquarters- None. They knew the coming weeks and run up to Super Tuesday SEC States with rich delegates were adequate for her to seal the deal.
Then came Nevada caucus on February 20, as per RCP average, Hillary was supposed to beat Sanders by 2.4 percentage points, final results she outperformed her estimates by 2.1 points. Now she was moving towards her domain- southern states- more favorable states. South Carolina was the actual test for her- to reinforce and check if her firewall stood up. Oh boy, it did- She thrashed Sanders by a spread of 47.5 percentage points. Total ass-whooping that was- Like when our neighbor Arjun was thrashed by his mother for coming second in the class- he didn’t come to school for a week.
March 1- Super Tuesday- As expected, SEC states stood up once again in support of Hillary. Amidst the black demographics- Hillary was beating Sanders 93-7 in Alabama. Her worst performance was in Oklahoma where only 71 percent of black Democratic voters chose her. After 15 states have voted, it is very much clear that Hillary’s coalition is much wider than Bernie’s. Sander has won where small states where black Democratic voters are less than 10 percent of the total population. With black voters making up more than 20 percent of the Democrat primary voters countrywide, this is not going to work for Sanders.
You may very well ask why is Mrs. Clinton so popular amidst black voters? – Yes, the answer is Mr. Clinton + plus you know sympathy votes for not standing beside her in 2008. Those paavum votes pouring in.
Current Delegate Count: 1,052 (includes 456 super delegates and 596 pledged delegates) of 2383 needed to win. (Superdelegate concept is a bit complicated – all you need to know is that she is on fast track to being the first women president nominee of the country)
Bernard Sanders: A Jewish progressive socialist ‘democrat’ from Brooklyn and current junior senator from Vermont. Also, he was the mayor of Burlington running as an independent in 1980 beating an incumbent five times Democrat mayor. That is just about it. He has been an independent all his life. This is precisely the reason you would not find much of an establishment support behind him when establishment herself is running for president. In 2005, with the support of Chuck Schumer, Chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, he became the senator. Howard Dean (DNC, Chairman) said in May 2005 that he considered Sanders an ally who "votes with the Democrats 98% of the time" and thus supported him. Fun Fact: Even Barack Obama (then Senator) campaigned for him in 2006. Ironically that Senate election was one of the richest senator elections.
Bernie came to the limelight on December 10, 2010, when he filibustered Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010 by giving a 8 and a half hour long speech so that the Senate would not vote for it. (On a side note: Filibuster is an excellent concept- should be in India- would be so much fun to see our politicians reading from recipe books- probably letting the nation know about aloo parathas and paneer tikka masalas- imagine a dude oldie from Haryana reading out Sarita in the Lok Sabha- too much fun)
Bernie Sanders is considered one of the most progressive liberal politicians in the country. From the right of LGBT community to income inequality to climate change to universal health care system- he has been a champion and a voice for many. He takes inspiration from socialist parties of the Nordic countries.
This is the secret of his overwhelming support amidst the Millennial and college students. His education policies, health care policies, and economic policies are mostly inspired by the socialist movement in Nordic countries.
Bernard Sanders with his progressive socialist ideas have been able to tap into liberal white voters and young voters. As Mark Cuban noted billionaire and tech mogul points out, SocioCapitalism is and has been Capitalism for Millennials. You haven’t been paying attention. Bernie has.
Having established why Sanders is a beloved amidst millennial and young voters – we need to look at is the coalition enough? Is a coalition of non-white, young, liberal and working-class Democrats enough? No Not in 2016. Who do you think Sanders is? – Donald Trump- wait what? Sanders has won in states with less than 10% black votes as a voting population- If you look at US state wise black population distribution- the states that have less than 10% black population are mostly inconsequential as they are delegate weak states. It is not that Bernie didn’t try wooing the black voters- he tried with an ad campaign It’s not Over – lead Erica Garner- it just didn’t work out- or at least it looks like it isn’t working out.
What does this mean for Bernie? – Bernie was never a contender this election- he though managed to make socialism a popular topic in the Mecca of capitalism. Since he has raised $42 Million just in February, he is staying in the race and making himself heard till the Democratic National Convention on July 25. In most likelihood Goliath is winning this nomination.
Current Delegate Count: 427 (includes 22 super delegates and 399 Pledged delegates)
The Republican side is murkier and fun- coming up in part 2- Ides of March begin
(Jacob Parackal is a management consultant and COO at Select My Tutor- In other words a Troublemaker. He is a Rubio Republican. The views expressed in the article are his own and does not reflect the stand of Network18)
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