79 nations to have more than 1 mn Muslims by 2030

Washington: Pakistan may surpass Indonesia as the world's most populous Muslim nation while the Indian Muslims' number is estimated to cross 23.6 crore in 2030, as the community's population worldwide is expected to grow about twice the rate of non-Muslims in the next two decades, says a study.

In the next two decades, the Muslim population globally is expected to grow about twice the rate of the non-Muslims, the study called 'The Future of the Global Muslim Population' and released on Thursday said.

If current trends continue, Muslims will make up 26.4 per cent of the world's total projected population of 8.3 billion in 2030, up from 23.4 per cent of the estimated 2010 world population of 6.9 billion, said the report.

According to the report released by The Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, India is projected to have a Muslim population of 23,6182,000 in 2030; which would be nearly 16 per cent of the then Indian population.

In 2010, India is estimated to have 177,286,000 Muslims, which is 14.6 per cent of the total Indian population.

With a projected population of 256,117,000 in 2030, Pakistan is expected to surpass Indonesia as the country with the single largest Muslim population.

In 2010, Pakistan had an estimated Muslim population of 178,097,000.

The report said, world's Muslim population is expected to increase by about 35 per cent in the next 20 years, rising from 1.6 billion in 2010 to 2.2 billion by 2030.

The average annual growth rate of Muslims in the next two decades has been projected to be 1.5 per cent, compared with 0.7 per cent for the non-Muslims.

While the global Muslim population is expected to grow at a faster rate than the non-Muslim population, the Muslim population nevertheless is expected to grow at a slower pace in the next two decades than it did in the previous two

decades.

From 1990 to 2010, the global Muslim population increased at an average annual rate of 2.2 per cent, compared with the projected rate of 1.5 per cent for the period from 2010 to 2030, the report said.

The Pew projections are based both on past demographic trends and on assumptions about how these trends will play out in future years.

If current trends continue, as many as 79 countries will have a million or more Muslim inhabitants in 2030, up from 72 countries today.

A majority of the world's Muslims (about 60 per cent) will continue to live in the Asia-Pacific region, while about 20 per cent will live in the Middle East and North Africa, as is the case today.

The portion of the world's Muslims living in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to rise; in 20 years, for example, more Muslims are likely to live in Nigeria than in Egypt.

Muslims will remain relatively small minorities in Europe and the Americas, but they are expected to constitute a growing share of the total population in these regions.

Pew said several factors account for the faster projected growth among Muslims than non-Muslims worldwide.

"Generally, Muslim populations tend to have higher fertility rates (more children per woman) than non-Muslim populations," it said.

"In addition, a larger share of the Muslim population is in, or soon will enter, the prime reproductive years (ages 15-29). Also, improved health and economic conditions in Muslim-majority countries have led to greater-than-average declines in infant and child mortality rates, and life expectancy is rising even faster in Muslim-majority countries than in other less-developed countries," the report said.