Amid the strain in the Congress-Samajwadi Party (SP) ties, a result of the Congress’s unwillingness to share seats with the SP in the Madhya Pradesh assembly polls, the bigger question is — how will the two Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc partners share seats in Uttar Pradesh (UP) in the upcoming Lok Sabha (LS) polls?
Political analysts have called the MP assembly elections a litmus test for the Congress-SP alliance ahead of the 2024 general elections.
THE CONGRESS-SP RIFT
It all began almost 50 days ago, when the foundation of the INDIA bloc was laid to fight against Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2024 LS polls. The INDIA bloc has 28 political parties from different parts of the country, including the Grand Old Party Congress and SP.
At the time of the formation of the alliance, the partners had passed a resolution stating seat-sharing would be based on the spirit of ‘give and take’. While the talks, resolutions and vows were meant for the 2024 LS polls, its effects are visible much in advance in the 2023 state assembly polls in five states — Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Mizoram.
Of the five, MP will be the first to go to polls on November 17.
THE CLASH ON 4 SEATS IN MP
In the first signs of rift, both the Congress and SP fought over four assembly seats in MP, as the seat-sharing talks between the two failed to reach a consensus. Both the parties have now released separate lists of their candidates for the assembly polls in MP.
The SP, which plans to contest from 18 seats, declared nine candidates in its first list. Among those on the list were MLA Meera Deepak Yadav from Nirwadi, Brajgopal Patel from Raj Nagar, DR Rahul from Bhander, Vishwanath Singh Markam from Dhauhani, Shravan Kumar Singh Gaur from Chitrangi, Lakshman Tiwari from Sirmaur, Manoj Yadav from Bijwar, Mahesh Sahare from Katangi, and Rampratap Singh Yadav from Sidhi. Four of the nine — Chitrangi, Medgaon, Bhander and Raj Nagar — seats will see a clash with the Congress, clear from the latter’s list of 144 candidates for the 230 assembly seats. In 2018, the Congress had won all these seats, barring Chitrangi.
Interestingly, the Congress has also announced a candidate from the Bijawar assembly seat, which the SP had won in the 2018 assembly polls.
SP chief Akhilesh Yadav said recently, “The Congress should decide whether they want an alliance at the state level or at the national level. If they don’t want an alliance at the state level, then in the future, there will be no state-level alliance."
The issue snowballed when senior Congress leaders blamed the SP for not supporting the Congress in the MP assembly elections.
“Instead of taking advantage of the situation, the SP should have come forward and supported the Congress in the regions that are considered the party’s strongholds. Instead, they indulged in denting the party’s vote base by fielding their candidates from Congress seats. The SP should have suppressed their political aspirations and supported the Congress. Only then the bigger goal, which is to stop the BJP in 2024, can be achieved," said Ajay Rai, UP Congress chief.
THE LITMUS TEST
Although Yadav said he had received a message from senior Congress leaders, and hopefully the issue will be resolved soon, political analysts are not convinced.
“There may not be much at stake for the SP in the MP assembly polls, but it is likely to set the tone for seat-sharing with the Congress for the upcoming 2024 LS polls. Along with other factors, the seat-sharing formula will also play a crucial role in UP. It will decide the fate of both the parties," said Shashikant Pandey, head of the political science department, Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University, Lucknow.
Pandey said that, in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, the Congress holds a prominent position. In Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, it is in power, whereas in MP, it is the main opposition party. The Congress’s role and performance in the 2023 assembly elections will help the party position itself strongly in UP for the 2024 LS polls. “The more the seats in MP and other state assemblies, the better its position and the result will be in UP in the 2024 LS polls," pointed out Pandey.
Statistics show that be it the UP assembly elections in 2017, when the SP and Congress joined hands, or even the 2019 LS polls, Yadav showed generosity in seat-sharing, said Pandey.
Currently, the SP is targeting three states, including MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. In MP, the SP had bagged seven seats in the 2003 elections. It has, however, not been able to open its account in Chhattisgarh, whereas in Rajasthan, the party backed Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), which currently has one MLA in the state assembly.
Pandey said that the INDIA bloc’s agenda to stop the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls can only be achieved if both the Congress and SP come up with a seat-sharing formula at the earliest in order to focus on the bigger goal.
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