Aam Aadmi Party achieved an unprecedented victory in the national capital. Sixty seven MLAs in a 70 member assembly, backing Kejriwal as Delhi CM. It is a big achievement for a party which got written off after quitting the Delhi government in 2014 and got routed in the Lok Sabha elections. As the BJP's tally dropped from over 30 to just 3 seats, the headlines wailed, lauding Kejriwal for crushing the Modi 'wave' and killing his winning streak. Every Opposition party is riding the frenzy wave, citing the election results as the beginning
of the downfall of Modi and Amit Shah, rejoicing at being able to take a stronger swing against the Centre.
The anatomy of the Delhi elections on the other hand has a sobering effect. The results are a reflection of AAP's tireless work at the ground level in Delhi for the past one year and the BJP's sheer ignorance of the political situation. Nothing more and nothing less.
Ever since the Lok Sabha debacle, the Aam Aadmi party has been working to consolidate its fractured support to gain power in the Assembly. They have been in constant contact with voters and maintained a presence in various constituencies raising issues and lobbying for support. On the other hand, BJP's MLAs and MPs from Delhi were missing in action for months before the elections. There was no concerted effort for coordinated campaigns and maintaining a presence on the ground. While the BJP came in on a massive wave in 2014, this time around the Aam Aadmi party looked like they gave a damn about the voters. AAP was primed and ready while the BJP thought it could ride the 'Modi wave' one more time without doing any work.
Yet, despite having an organisational edge over the BJP, AAP failed to significantly hamper the BJP's vote share, which saw a reduction of only 0.9%. Meanwhile, support for the Congress was completely evaporated with a 15% loss in its vote share.
Despite what AAP claims, its victory was not ideological. The party swept as they were more adept than the BJP at bringing in almost all the Congress votes into their fold. AAP says the Delhi vote was a rejection of the communalism of the BJP, but if that was true, then every Muslim dominated seat would have gone to the party. In fact, BJP wrestled the Mustafabad seat from the Congress and in fact increased its vote share in the process.
AAP may covet Delhi as a staging ground to expand, however the biggest problem with claiming the capital is that the honeymoon period is extremely short. AAP has made a tall list of promises from education, infrastructure and law and order, but controls a government that has no power to independently deliver on many of them. The Delhi police are controlled by the Union government. The Urban Development Ministry controls land policy in Delhi - only it has the authority to sanction land for AAP's promises for new colleges and educational institutions.
In the area of power, only re-negotiating contracts with power companies can bring down energy prices. AAP will face a tough legal battle over the case, and will resort to subsidizing power bills, but that isn't a feasible strategy for the next 5 years. It will be a major rain on the state exchequer.
As AAP prides itself on being a political novelty, with the media's eyes on the party, the day is not far when the gap between its promises and capabilities are publicly exposed. That's when it will face yet another credibility crisis and engage in another blame game with the Centre, which will have an immediate impact on its support base. AAP is not unaware of the fact that a voter's wrath is stronger than its faith. Just ask the Congress party.
AAP's victory is a true underdog story which has caught the imagination of the nation and the media. As the fever breaks and reality sinks in - the party has an uphill task to maintain it's credibility as a party with a difference.
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