New elhi: There does not appear to be any immediate threat to the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Government at the Centre from the pull-out of the DMK. Even without the 18 Lok Sabha members of the DMK, the UPA’s majority is unlikely to be threatened. This is particularly crucial in view of the Finance Bill, which has to be passed in the ongoing Budget Session.
Moreover, J Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK, with nine members in the Lok Sabha, has already signalled its willingness to support the UPA in the event of the DMK’s withdrawal.
The real impact of the pull-out will come in the Tamil Nadu elections. This move might well signal the end of the Congress-DMK alliance in the state, which goes to the polls in April. It is, however, by no means a certainty that this will ensue. It is possible that the leaders of the two parties, the DMK’s M.K. Karunanidhi and the Congress’s Sonia Gandhi, will make attempts to salvage the relationship.
Experts believe that the DMK has more to lose here than the Congress. For one thing, it is already under the shadow of the 2G scam, where its senior leader A. Raja has been charged with perpetrating giant financial wrongdoing. And its chief rival in the state, the AIADMK, has just entered into an alliance of its own with local hero Vijaykanth, whose party, the DMDK, has been allotted 41 seats by Jayalalithaa in the upcoming electoral contest.
Moreover, the Congress is believed to be planning to beat a solo path in Tamil Nadu, following the so-called Rahul Gandhi doctrine. So, observers state, it is the DMK that has to make the first move towards a truce, if at all it wants one. The flashpoint at present is the Congress’s demand for 63 out of the 234 seats in Tamil Nadu, three more than the 60 it was supposed to have agreed to originally.
As things stand, therefore, the next two or three days should reveal whether this is just a spat or a permanent separation.
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