All Set For Counting: Whose Turn to Exit?

Who will rule West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry for the next five years? We will get to know the answer by 11 am on Thursday. Most exit polls have predicted that Mamata Banerjee-led TMC will stay in power in West Bengal, J Jayalalithaa will make way for MK Stalin-led DMK in Tamil Nadu, BJP will script a historic win in Assam and Kerala will bring back the LDF. In the tiny union territory of Puducherry, chief minister N Rangaswamy’s future looks bleak.

West Bengal

Most Exit Polls have predicted a big win for Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress.If she wins, her victory march which started in 2009 Lok Sabha elections will continue, with no strong opposition to her rule. The CPM-led Left Front which fought the Assembly polls in alliance with the Congress will have to seriously think about its future, if Mamata railroads them into submission once again. The second consecutive defeat is likely to make both the Left and Congress largely irrelevant in the state's politics.

If she wins, Mamata is likely to take some decisive steps to consolidate her power both within and outside the party.

Assam

If we go by the exit polls, the longest serving chief minister of Assam, Tarun Gogoi, may not be as lucky as Mamata. Most have already voted him out, giving a clear edge to the BJP. If the BJP manages to unseat Gogoi, it will be a historic victory for the saffron party in many ways. Dubbed as the 'third' force in the biggest north eastern state till recently, the BJP will emerge as the primary force. It will also be a huge win for BJP's CM nominee Srabananda Sonowal, who was allowed to lead the campaign by the party bosses in New Delhi - Modi and Shah.

Tarun Gogoi led a spirited campaign across the state and if he manages a fourth consecutive win for the Congress, he will go down in history as Congress' most charismatic chief minister ever. A hung Assembly can make AIUDF and AGP kingmakers. A loss for Gogoi can make Congress totally irrelevant in the eastern parts of India.

Tamil Nadu

Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa will continue to be the uncrowned queen of Tamil Nadu if she bucks the trend. Because nobody has done that after her mentor MG Ramachandran. Most exit polls have predicted a win for MK Stalin-led DMK. Only two exit polls – C-Voter and Thanthi TV - have declared that Jaya will stay in power, giving her 139 and 111 seats respectively. If that happens, the DMK will have to go through what the Left Front would go through in West Bengal in case of a Mamata win.

If DMK wins, AIADMK might face a huge crisis as Jayalalithaa is not keeping well. If TN throws up a hung Assembly, smaller players like Vaiko, Vijayakanth and Anbumani Ramdoss will become kingmakers in the highly polarised and complex state politics.

A win for DMK will help the Congress remain relevant in state politics. The 92-year old five time chief minister M Karunanidhi may once again become the chief minister delegating all his powers to MK Stalin.

Kerala

The smallest southern state with a high density of population is unlikely to buck the trend say exit polls. Most exit polls have predicted the win of CPM-led LDF in this election. Kerala always alternates the two fronts once in five years. If the LDF wins, Pinarayi Vijayan will most likely become the chief minister, and the 92-year old former chief minister VS Achuthanandan will have to be contented with the post of an MLA.

The third player BJP may or may not open its account in Kerala. If it wins even one seat, it will be an occasion for celebration.

Puducherry

The news ahead of counting is not encouraging for Chief minister N Rangaswamy. His party AINRC is staring at an imminent defeat claim some exit polls. The Congress – DMK alliance is the top favourite. The AIADMK may also deliver some unexpected results. The Territorial Assembly has just 30 seats.